HLHB Weekly Update – December 18, 2009

This week was pretty busy for me since I had to catch up with all my Christmas cards. Not that I have anything against technology or the internet but, growing up, I always made Christmas cards for my dearest friends and family. It’s a tradition that I’ve grown accustomed to and plan to keep doing year after year. I need to get this finished so I can have them all delivered before the weekend!

Plus, I got movie plans again tonight! I’ve been itching to watch Avatar this week, mostly because all my friends have been raving about it. Fantasy-inspired movies really aren’t the type I usually watch but the fact that James Cameron directed the movie makes me really intrigued. Did you know that the last movie he directed, which I absolutely adored was Titanic?

Anyway, it looks like the dollar was on a rampage again this week. The EURUSD just dropped about 400 pips, after it was hanging around its 1.4700 perch late last week! It seems that traders have reacted positively to the FOMC statement released earlier this week, and it looks like this dollar buying may continue for the rest of the year. To be honest, during my first year in trading, I have tended to stay on the side of caution, waiting and waiting for the dollar to make a comeback. Now however, this dollar flurry has happened oh so fast. I really wonder if this will continue in 2010.

And now, onto my system update

PoD Chart

Wow, I just can’t get a signal! There have been no signals the past two trading weeks, as the strong downtrend has continued. In fact, I haven’t been getting any signals from my mechanical system for an entire month. I guess I’ve been filtering out a lot of good trades and I might have to make some adjustments for my system. This would’ve been a really nice trade. Are my filters too strict? Should I tone them down a little? Perhaps change my oscillator or alter the parameters? Should I adjust my stochastics settings and make them slower? Or should I have a smaller pip filter? What do you guys think?

My back test results showed I had at least a signal per week but that isn’t happening now… From the looks of it, I’ll have to do some more HLHB system tweaking soon but I guess that’ll have to wait until 2010.

8 comments

  1. TalonD

    why wait for a signal, if you can see that it’s in a strong downtrend the sell, you’ll be more likely to get it right than wrong. put probability on your side.

    Reply
  2. PRN

    Have been following your progress and I’m learning a few things from you!!!! There is a fine line between improving a mechanical system and curve fitting it. Beware of the latter….

    Reply
  3. quantisan

    I agree with PRN. Also be aware that this is December. So volume is expected to be low and abnormal moves might happen.

    Reply
  4. TalonD

    why wait for a signal, if you can see that it’s in a strong downtrend the sell, you’ll be more likely to get it right than wrong. put probability on your side.

    Reply
  5. PRN

    Have been following your progress and I’m learning a few things from you!!!! There is a fine line between improving a mechanical system and curve fitting it. Beware of the latter….

    Reply
  6. quantisan

    I agree with PRN. Also be aware that this is December. So volume is expected to be low and abnormal moves might happen.

    Reply

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