HLHB Weekly Update – August 6, 2010

PoD Chart

BOOOOOOOOOOOO! After saving my butt numerous times in the past, my 30-pip filter has now failed me epicly! Is that even a word? Bahh who cares!

Two weeks ago, the faster-moving 5 EMA crossed over the 10-EMA and created a buy signal. Unfortunately stochastics already slightly oversold and price did not go beyond 30-pips above the high of the cross over candle.

Per my rules, I should NOT enter as this would most likely be a fakeout than a true move upward. Oh, how my system was wrong. Soon after the cross over, price flew to high heavens and rallied more than 300 pips. Oh, the agony of a missed trade!

Bah. I can’t expect to catch every move, but I do expect to be profitable in the end. Besides, I already caught the first big move earlier this year with the HLHB system.

This week was pretty topsy turvy, which left the US dollar as the “Biggest Loser” as risk appetite improved and drove traders towards the higher-yielding currencies. As I learned from Forex Gump, weak US fundamentals also played a role in driving the Greenback lower against its counterparts. In fact, the euro and the pound seem to have gained the most against the dollar as the economic outlook started to brighten for the euro zone and the UK.

Price action has also been a bit choppier than usual in the past couple of days as traders started to position themselves ahead of the big events, which were a couple of rate decisions and the US NFP release.

So no signals for me this week. But boy, do I miss the beach! I want to go back! Need to get my tan right!

  • colstreamer

    “Epicly” is a new word although I believe many english professors will say it isn’t a word at all. It is an adverb and was first used on Friday, October 24, 2008 on Digg to describe what many believe is a lack of intelligence on the part of Sarah Palin. English is a constantly evolving language with new words being accepted into it every year. Meanings of words change over time as well.

    Pity about the missed trade though. ;)

  • colstreamer

    “Epicly” is a new word although I believe many english professors will say it isn’t a word at all. It is an adverb and was first used on Friday, October 24, 2008 on Digg to describe what many believe is a lack of intelligence on the part of Sarah Palin. English is a constantly evolving language with new words being accepted into it every year. Meanings of words change over time as well.

    Pity about the missed trade though. ;)

  • whit32457

    Not to worry Huck, yours was only a missed opportuniuty. MY 100% fallible system completely blew me out of live trading for the near term. It is as it is. And 5 months ago, my system could do no wrong….. like my dad used to tell me “Now you know better….”

    Whit

  • whit32457

    Not to worry Huck, yours was only a missed opportuniuty. MY 100% fallible system completely blew me out of live trading for the near term. It is as it is. And 5 months ago, my system could do no wrong….. like my dad used to tell me “Now you know better….”

    Whit

  • sunglow

    Hi Huck. I can understand your frustration in missing a profitable trade, but as you said in your piece, your 30 pip filter saved you from many losses. Now that you have calmed down from missing a good trade, is this not a good time to go back to your trading records, and I assume here that you are recording the trades that your filter prevented as well as those that it allowed to proceed, and look how your system would have fared with and without your filter? I suspect that despite the recent missed trade, your filter will have saved you from some poor trades and overall, it maybe still worth keeping. But, you don’t want guesses on this matter, you want to know the cold facts. Looking back in the cold clear light of day, is the filter worth keeping? If it is, then forget about the missed trade as that is always bound to happen. As one of the commentators on Babypips recently said, trading is not about winning each individual game, but about winning the league. When you have looked at your records, I would be interested to know the efficacy of your filter.

  • sunglow

    Hi Huck. I can understand your frustration in missing a profitable trade, but as you said in your piece, your 30 pip filter saved you from many losses. Now that you have calmed down from missing a good trade, is this not a good time to go back to your trading records, and I assume here that you are recording the trades that your filter prevented as well as those that it allowed to proceed, and look how your system would have fared with and without your filter? I suspect that despite the recent missed trade, your filter will have saved you from some poor trades and overall, it maybe still worth keeping. But, you don’t want guesses on this matter, you want to know the cold facts. Looking back in the cold clear light of day, is the filter worth keeping? If it is, then forget about the missed trade as that is always bound to happen. As one of the commentators on Babypips recently said, trading is not about winning each individual game, but about winning the league. When you have looked at your records, I would be interested to know the efficacy of your filter.

  • Huck

    That’s so true sunglow. I guess you are right. Frustration is part of the trading game, and I just have to suck it up… :(

    Besides, my system has already caught one major move in the past, and I just happen to miss this one. Let’s see how it fares in the future :)

  • Huck

    That’s so true sunglow. I guess you are right. Frustration is part of the trading game, and I just have to suck it up… :(

    Besides, my system has already caught one major move in the past, and I just happen to miss this one. Let’s see how it fares in the future :)