HLHB Weekly Update – September 9, 2011

HLHB Trend Catcher System

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart

Remember that signal I pointed out last week on my HLHB Trend Catcher system? As it turns out, the second position would’ve closed with a 335-pip win at 1.4187 when another crossover materialized. Cha-ching!

However, the upward crossover turned out to be a fakeout as another downward crossover materialized soon after. A sell order at 1.4047 would’ve been a valid trade then since RSI hinted that the downtrend was strong (<50) and ADX was above 20.

However, that trade would’ve ended with a 32-pip loss as ANOTHER upward crossover materialized. Going long at 1.4079 would’ve been a valid trade but that too would’ve ended up as a loser as the EMAs crossed over again.

Thankfully, the last trade for the week, a short at 1.4074, seems promising. The first profit target would’ve already been hit at 1.3924. Let’s see where the second position closes!

GBP/USD Update

GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart

As for my GBP/USD trade, it looks like I’ve missed the boat. I thought that I could jump in on the trend when the Halifax HPI, manufacturing production, and industrial production reports were released last Wednesday. But the pair didn’t quite reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which was the area I was eyeing for my entry.

I mentioned in my plan that I wouldn’t leave any order on because I preferred to wait for candlesticks as confirmation. I figured that it was already a missed trade so I canceled my short orders. Little did I know that price would actually jump back up to 1.6050 again yesterday. Grr!

I guess I was too conservative, huh? I haven’t had a winning trade in a while and I feel like I’ve lost a bit of my trading swag.

At the start of the week, I had a feeling that the August NFP report would set the tone for the week’s trading and that the dollar would rally on risk aversion. Apparently, my gut feeling was right but I wasn’t able to capitalize on the dollar’s rally because I was afraid of losing. Ugh!

I wonder if the dollar’s strength will be sustained until next week…

“Stop right there Huck!”

Before I start analyzing market sentiment, I think I need to focus on my trading mindset. I’ll probably need to unwind this weekend and get rid of all the negative vibes. But I don’t know what I should do! You guys have suggestions how? Share them to me please!

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