HLHB Weekly Update – September 30, 2011

While I raked in pips in my live discretionary trading account (check out my 100-pip win on my EUR/USD trade!), the HLHB Trend-Catcher System didn’t do too well this week. It received a lot of signals but most of them were fakeouts!

If you look at the chart I posted below, I had 9 losing trades and only 1 winning trade. Even though the winning trade was huge, it gain wasn’t enough to make up for the losing trades.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart

All in all the HLHB Trend-Catcher experienced a 262-pip loss. Still, I’m not really fazed. I know that forward-testing a mechanical system in a demo account is one of the best ways to tweak it to “perfection.” Through these losses, I can understand which indicators work and what parameters to change. Besides, the only thing I lose is time and maybe my future demo mansion!

Also, given the topsy-turvy moves in the markets this week, I’m not really surprised that my system generated a lot of fakeouts.

From what I’ve read on Pip Diddy’s commentaries, it seems like higher-yielding currencies were able to rally at the start of the week as investors grew optimistic of Greece’s financial situation. However, when European policymakers failed to deliver any concrete plan to save the debt-ridden country, risk aversion started to dictate price action.

I have a feeling next week’s action on the charts won’t be much different from what we saw this week. It’s already the end of September and with Greece running out of cash fast (from what I’ve heard, they only have enough funds until mid-October), the spotlight is still gonna be focused on Europe.

That’s just my two cents though. What do you guys think?



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  • Forex Vendetta

    Hun, why don’t you trade the opposite of what signals the system gives you? In theory it would mean you would have had 9 wins and 1 loss, as long as you keep your stops tight! Just an idea :))

    • huck

      Haha, that makes sense! There’s one problem though, if you look at the signals, I would’ve still ended up with a loss if I took the opposite! The market was ranging which meant a lot of whipsaws, sadly. 🙁

  • Schnitzel

    I started testing this system on a demo account this week on tuesday and it did very well.. but only on tuesday. 🙁 Both EUR/USD and GPB/USD went up for about 120 Pips. But on Thursday the former good looking trends just started to crash downwards like -150 Pips from my Entrypoints… so this brought me to about -50 Pips per Trade with 9 trades overall until today. Not a very good start, although i like the idea behind this system a lot. I will go on testing it for the next few weeks and then decide to keep it or not.
    Also some adjustments this week like closing the trades already with 50 Pips winning and then adding another Position for another 50 Pips or waiting for stronger ADX signs would have made me winning this week (i guess), because the trends were very short.

  • fxsableng

    I tested this system a while ago (hope you don’t mind :D).
    As you might already noticed there can be alot of fakeouts in sideways market, and it kills, it can also kill when the trend is not strong enough.
    I believe the real key is not the crossover, but the pullback.
    After MA crossover, wait for a pullback and watch what happens when the price is near the MA. If it bounces back in the MA direction, then make your entry as close to the MA as possible.
    Cut your losses if the price crosses both MAs, that way your losses will be minimum.
    I think 20-30 pips is not that hard to get, and if you want even more, then always lock some profit and let it run.