HLHB Weekly Update – October 21, 2011

Talk about a crazy week! The HLHB Trend-Catcher system scored its first losing week since I started forward-testing it on the 1-hour time frame. Boo!

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart

It seems to me that EUR/USD just ranged during the week. The system generated 6 valid signals, with only two winners, three losers, and one trade still open.

These trades translated to a small net loss of 17. But eh, I’m not too bummed out about it. Every system incurs losses and my HLHB Trend-Catcher system is really no exception.

I guess the craziness all rooted from the ever-shifting market sentiment. One moment the market’s all happy and optimistic about the global economy, the next they’re all gloomy and melancholic! The market’s as moody as me when I’m about to have my period (I apologize in advance for the metaphor).

I mean, look t what happened this week. First, the market’s all positive on the rumors that Germany and France have finally agreed to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). They bought up the euro and other high-yielders and sold the dollar. A couple of days after, the market does a complete 180 degree turn and becomes doubtful and scared

Ay, caramba!

I guess that’s just how the forex ball rolls. As a trader, I have to always keep my eyes open and be aware of the shifts in sentiment.



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  • Daniel

    Hi Huck. Congratulations on your blog, it looks really nice. I have been reading your posts and I hope you don’t mind me giving you some ideas to improve your mechanical system. I have been trading Forex for more than a decade now and have seen many types of MA crossover systems. In my opinion the weakness of all of these systems {valid crosses that end as losers} is a ranging market and as you know the Forex is in ranging mode often. How about adding a filter that will reduce many losing trades? If you trade the 1 hr chart, only take trades in the direction of the larger time frame trend eg 4hr/ daily. This will help reduce MA crossovers against the trend and because you are using a trend catching crossover system, you should catch more big trades while cutting out the many small losses. Also try entering with 2 lots. One lot covers your risk. When your first profit target is reached, set your second lot at breakeven. You determine your own second profit target. My 2 cents. Good luck