HLHB Weekly Update – May 6, 2011

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

By now, you all probably know that I got a very painful loss on my EUR/USD trade yesterday. I’m guessing this was how Taylor Swift must have felt when Joe Jonas broke up with her over the phone. *blows nose*

Coming from a string of wins during the first quarter (Here are the stats in case you’re interested: Huck’s Trading Blog Performance for Q1 2011), I felt like I was invincible. I had this gut feel about every trade I took that it would become a winner. I was overflowing with confidence and I was soooooooo sure that my EUR/USD trade would lead to even more profits.

But when the ECB came out with its statement and omitted the words “strong vigilance,” EUR/USD dropped along with all my hopes of getting a win. I guess what I’m trying to say is, the market humbled me and brought my ego back down to earth.

That being said, I decided to take a break from the markets today and just cool off and focus instead on how my HLHB system (the original one, not the prototype and test versions) has been doing in the last couple of weeks.

It appears that it was able to catch one of the two profitable moves. On April 18, there was a downward crossover. The Stochastic was not yet oversold, so it meant that I could sell if the following candle went 30-pips below the low of the crossover candle.

I would’ve gotten in with 2 positions at 1.4361, with the first position closing at 1.4211 (150-pip target) and the second position closing at 1.4308 (150-pip trailing stop). It would’ve resulted in roughly a 1% gain.

The second signal was unfortunate though. There was an upward crossover, but the Stochastic was already overbought which made it an invalid trade.

A third crossover materialized just a few hours ago. With the Stochastic not being in the oversold area then, selling the pair at 1.4546 would have been valid according to my HLHB rules. I’ll update you whether it turns out to be a winner (or a loser) in my next update!

I’m still unsure if I am in complete control of my emotions right now. So yeah, I’ll sit on the sidelines this NFP Friday. I’ll just cheer for all the brave souls planning to trade the news. That’s the least I could do for all the advice you’ve given me. Thank you so much!

Let me know what your ideas are through Twitter or Facebook. You can also write them in the comment box below!

  • Guest

    Don’t take this the wrong way but you entered long when EUR/USD has made a triple top with 4 daily pin bars at a strong resistance area of 1.49 , these were all strong signs of a downtrend coming as far as technicals are concerned

    • Dean FX Paul

      It definitely hit some mighty resistance around 1.4900, though the 2 day drop of about 600 points is probably due to multiple factors like commodities being sold off big, Eurozone problems with Portugal/Greece, stocks and oil cooling off in the US, and people just generally feelings its time to take profits.

      Will be interesting to see next week if the EU continues its upward long term trend or decides its time-out and channels for a while.

      • John McKee

        @dean fx paul I notice that friday night saw a flag then breakout to short side. To me this looks like a harmonic ABC corrective elliot wave so I would not be surprised to see the trend continue down and turn up about the 1.42 point that would keep it in the weekly uptrend channel

    • John McKee

      Thanks for this was looking at much the same set up myself but I always keep Sarkozys comment “anyone betting against the Euro will loose money” in mind when trading EUR news and got herded into a long position. Don’t know if you’ve heard of Tom Bulford, but he reccomends not taking too much note of fundamentals other than to gauge general wider market sentiment so i think I’ll be following this philosophy for a while.

  • John McKee

    Huck sent you a tweet about possibly trading the flag breakout …did you look?

    • huck

      @twitter-57113515:disqus I did, but didn’t trade that day since my emotions were still jumbled up! Haha!

  • Joshua Pearce Gibson

    Good luck this week Huck. I’m rooting for you.