HLHB Weekly Update – May 3, 2013

EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

Unfortunately, the HLHB Trend-Catcher 3.0 ended negatively on EUR/USD again. While it did filter out a lot of bad trades, it still caught a significant chunk of fakeouts. As a result, the system ended up with a small loss. If there’s any consolation, the reward-to-risk ratio on the winning trades were pretty good, reducing the net loss greatly.

1. Invalid buy signal because RSI was already above 50.0 prior the crossover.
2. Invalid short signal since RSI was already below 50.0 prior the crossover.
3. Long at 1.3059. Closed at 1.3046 due to the new crossover. -13 pips.
4. Short at 1.3049. Closed at 1.3063 due to the new crossover. -14 pips.
5. Invalid long signal since RSI was below 50.0.
6. Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level from above.
7. Invalid long signal. Determined to be a fakeout since RSI was below 50.0.
8. Also another invalid short signal. RSI did not cross 50.0 from above.
9. Invalid upward crossover. RSI was below 50.0.
10. Short at 1.2987. Closed at 1.3018 due to new crossover. -31 pips.
11. Long at 1.3018. Closed at 1.3045 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +27 pips.
12. Short at 1.3013. Closed at 1.3033 due to new crossover. -20 pips.
13. Long at 1.3036. Closed at 1.3005 due to new crossover. -31 pips.
14. Invalid short signal since RSI was already below 50.0 prior the crossover.
15. Long at 1.3024. Closed at 1.3081 due to new crossover. +57 pips.

Total Gain/Loss: -25 pips

GBP/USD

GBP/USD 1-hour Chart

As for GBP/USD, the Trend-Catcher failed to get in on the big move because of the RSI! The indicator didn’t really do its job of filtering out fakeouts. On top of that, it kept the system from jumping in on a trade that could have been a big winner. Grr!

1. Short at 1.5620. Closed at 1.5247 due to a new crossover. -27 pips.
2. Long at 1.5247. Closed at 1.5256 due to a new crossover. +9 pips.
3. Short at 1.5256. Closed at 1.5247 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. -9 pips.
4. Long at 1.5286. Closed at 1.5244 due to a new crossover. -42 pips.
5. Short at 1.5244. Closed at 1.5250 due to a new crossover. -6 pips.
6. Invalid long signal since RSI was below 50.0.
7. Invalid short signal since RSI was above 50.0.
8. Invalid long signal since RSI was already above 50.0 prior to the crossover.

Total loss: -75 pips

I don’t know what my next report will bring, but I hope it’s good news…

XOXO,

Huck

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  • laughable

    Huck do you actually analyse your results quarterly/yearly to see if you can optimise your targets and R:R? As this is a publicly available methodology do you mind telling me your R:R per trade and average return over 20 trades? Do you actually have an edge? Your entry signals mean very little in this business, especially when they are derivatives of price (most common indicators).