HLHB Weekly Update – May 1, 2012

My HLHB Trend-Catcher didn’t have a good week last week. Out of the 11 valid trade signals that materialized, only two ended up as winners. Boo!

EUR/USD Chart

Here’s a rundown of all the HLHB signals that materialized:

1. Short at 1.3188. Trailing stop hit at 1.3154. +34 pips.
2. Long at 1.3156. Closed on new crossover at 1.3189. +33 pips.
3. Short at 1.3189. Closed on new crossover at 1.3204. -15 pips.
4. Long at 1.3204. Closed on new crossover at 1.3184. -20 pips.
5. Short at 1.3184. Closed on new crossover at 1.3209. -25 pips.
6. Long at 1.3209. Closed on new crossover at 1.3198. -11 pips.
7. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross 50.
8. Long at 1.3229. Trailing stop hit at 1.3214. -15 pips.
9. Short at 1.3210. Closed at 1.3231 on new crossover. -21 pips.
10. Long at 1.3231. Closed at 1.3191 on new crossover. -40 pips.
11. Short at 1.3191. Trailing stop hit at 1.3207. -16 pips.
12. Long at 1.3225. Closed on new crossover at 1.3236. -11 pips.

Overall, my system was down 107 pips for the week. Man, when will I see the big trends on EUR/USD so that my system can reel me in some pips?!?

In any case, that’s it for my HLHB update for this week. I’ll be giving my trade idea for the week soon. Stay tuned!

XOXO,

Huck

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11 comments

  1. Nick ForexSurfer

    Hi Huck! That seems a substantial amount of pips to lose. What kind of draw down does that create?

    Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      I normally compute on a quarterly basis. But for your information 50 pips is equivalent to 1%. If I’m down 250 pips for example, the drawdown is 5%.

      Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      Both. I’m trading the HLHB on a demo and I’m trading my discretionary system live. 

      Reply
  2. alwjmonster

    yeah realizing your system only work best during big trend.. it’s hard to avoid fakeouts like last week trade.. too many ups and downs.

    Reply
    • Granticus_Maximus

      I agree. I’ve been a regular fan of babypips for quite a few months now and I’ve noticed some great results from Hucks posts about the HLHB trendcather, and I think it does great at what it does – catching trends. When it’s ranging, I’m thinking that maybe another strategy should be used instead.

      Reply
      • Lornascott13

        But it’s difficult (if not impossible) to consistently anticipate if a currency pair will continue to trend or range over the mid-term. Huck could try using 2 different automated systems simultaneously (one for ranges and another for trends), but one of them would be guaranteed to lose pips while the other would ’perhaps’ profit. This is obviously not an ideal scenario. It seems the key is being able to switch between these two strategies on the fly…but that’s easier said than done :(

        Reply
  3. Lornascott13

    With the HLHB system not earning a single pip in the last 4 weeks and posting rather heavy losses, do you think a strategy adjustment for the system is in the horizon? For example the RSI setup might need to be tweaked.

    Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      Yeah, it’s also probably due to the erratic market conditions. This has resulted in a lot of ranging behavior… I’ll have to see though. I’ll give it another month or so.

      Reply
  4. Grant Millar

    I’ve just recently been looking for different systems that work with different currency pairs and found something that seems to work pretty great with the EUR/USD (better than the AUD or GBP)… It may sound ridiculously simple, but a 200SMA on a 1hr chart with confirmation of RSI + Stochastic and candlestick formations to support shows some great short/long entry positions… Mind you, I mostly focus on that 200SMA line and just use the others to confirm. Using Fib levels also works great.
    I did some careful testing over the past year or so and have found that if a candle hits and even crosses, but doesn’t close under the 200SMA, it’s almost guaranteed to prop back at *LEAST* 30 pips, but frequently 100+ pips before coming back for a retest. There are obviously times where it did close below and propped back up, but with relatively tight stops (but not too tight where you’ll get stopped by the slightest pull-back) you can minimise losses. In this system you only buy/sell on the bounces.Last week was incredible… On Friday (I think) a candle broke the 200SMA but closed above the rising trendline AND the 200SMA, a candle formed right beside it causing a tweesers formation and it reversed 70+ pips… And then to top it off, it was bouncing right off the 38.0 Fib level.One of the things I learned from the School of Pipsology, is that the more confirmations you get, the better :D …each of these in combination make for a pretty solid system on this pair I think.AAAANYWAY… Just some of my recent observations on the EUR/USD. Thought I’d share my thoughts :) …hopefully this week will treat the HLHB trend catcher a littler better!! :)

    Reply

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