HLHB Weekly Update – March 4, 2011

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

Argh… Price STILL hasn’t retraced to make a new crossover and get me into a trade! I swear, I’m so close to completely scrapping this system. So frustrating… If it hadn’t been profitable in 2010 and when I backtested it, I probably would have!

-Deep breath-

Alright, I’m calm now… Trend-following systems like the HLHB system take a while to kick in, but when they do, they bring in a lot of pips. Last year, I had one trade that had more than 600 pips gain.

For now, I just have to be patient and keep my cool. Price NEVER moves in one-direction – it is subject to a lot of reversals and retracements. Sooner or later, the EMAs will crossover, and my system will be there to catch it!

In other news, political tensions continued to escalate in the Middle East. However, instead of sparking risk aversion, trouble in Libya fueled speculations about interest rate hikes as prices of commodities skyrocketed.

Too bad for the dollar, markets don’t expect the Fed to join the hawks‘ bandwagon. In fact, it seems like word about further QE made bigger news than an interest rate hike from the Fed.

The euro, on the other hand, has been enjoying talks about a possible rate hike from the ECB. Traders have been buying the euro like a large cup of hot Caramel Macchiato in a cold, rainy night since the start of the week. Then to top off all the hawkish speculation like whipped cream, was ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet‘s remarks yesterday that the central bank could hike as early as next month!

But I don’t know how long the euro lovin’ will last. Who knows, Europe’s sovereign debt problems could make a comeback next week and give me that EMA crossover that I’ve been asking for.

And last on today’s headlines is, dromroll please… I’m back on Twitter! Happy Pip and Cyclo Pip told me how much fun they’re having with it so I decided I might as well give my social life its much-needed boost. I’ve been all work and no play for lately. So follow me, okay? Skadoosh!