HLHB Weekly Update – March 16, 2012

Whoa! This week was probably the best one for the HLHB Trend-Catcher yet. The system had 3 winning trades and filtered out all the bad ones!

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart

Here’s a brief summary of the signals that materialized:

  1. Short at 1.3234. Trailing stop triggered at 1.3128. +106 pips
  2. Invalid signal since RSI did not crossover the 50 level.
  3. Short at 1.3129. Trailing stop triggered at 1.3101. +28 pips
  4. Another invalid signal since RSI did not crossover the 50 level.
  5. Last invalid signal for the week since RSI was already below 50 when it the EMAs crossover to the downside.
  6. Long at 1.3053. Trailing stop triggered at 1.3070. +17 pips

Of course, it helped a lot that the dollar rallied across the board this week. Well actually, it seems to me that it started last week when the NFP report for February came in better than expected and had market participants excited about the recovery of the U.S. economy.

Heck, even the Fed couldn’t ignore the recent economic improvements! In the most recent FOMC statement, the central bank hinted that QE3 may not happen anytime soon.

Although a buy signal materialized in my system, in my humble opinion, I don’t think the dollar rally is already over. But I do believe that before it resumes, we’re gonna see a pullback. This is why I bought EUR/USD at 1.3050 yesterday.

That’s just me though. What do you guys think? Is this a reversal we’re seeing on EUR/USD or is it nothing more than just a pull back?


XOXO,

Huck

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  • Franci Cvetko

    couple of newbie question here: 
    1.So every action u take is after closed candle and not before, right?
    2. You use 50 pip trailing stop, so after the signal materializes if the price sudenlly changes direction, you just wait and see what happens – so worse case scenario is -50 pips?

    Im new here, so im sorry if  questions are trivial to you.
    For now I use free trading-charting software which doesnt have a trailing stop, so its  kinda difficult. I just TP after 20 or so +pips and then reenter the trade. I know im loosing on spreads like this, but thats ok, im in a demo account learning process now. 
     
    thx for the answers an I whish u a lot of succesfull trades in the future

  • richhand

    Do the EMAs have to cross over at the same candle as the RSI moves over 50 for the signal to be valid? I see on the signal 2 that RSI crossed over 50 a couple of candles after the EMAs crossed. This would have been a good trade anyway.  

    • huck

      THe EMA should crossover at the same candle the RSI moves past 50. This is to ensure that the trade is not a fake out and that you do not enter too late! Hope that helps.

      • richhand

        if the r:r is still good then better late than never ay?

  • Mike2007

    hi,
    are the arrows on the chart marked by indicator ?
    thx

    • huck

      I don’t use MT4, and in my charting program has a feature where you can make it automatically mark arrows given certain conditions are met. :)