HLHB Weekly Update – June 17, 2011

HLHB system

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

No trade for my HLHB system for a third week in a row. Boo! As I mentioned last week, the most recent crossover didn’t warrant a valid signal. The low of the crossover candle was at 1.4500 and according to my system rules, the following candle had to dip 30 pips below to 1.4470 to trigger a sell order. But it didn’t. Sigh.

Had it been triggered, my system would have yielded a 150-pip win as price rallied all the way down to 1.4320 before bouncing back up. I would have closed half of my position then and the other half would have closed at breakeven on Wednesday as EUR/USD retraced its downward move back to 1.4500 before tumbling down.

Market Thoughts

As for the market, it was topsy-turvy!

During the start of the week, news of a credit downgrade for Greece from S&P from B to CCC didn’t seem to have bothered investors. But as the days went by, news of resistance against austerity measures by the Greeks made investors jittery and sent the euro, as well as other higher-yielding currencies, crashing down the charts.

I know this because risk aversion was one of the reasons why GPB/USD tumbled and stopped me out of my trade.

Of course it also didn’t help that the jobs report from the U.K. came in worse-than-expected. I hadn’t had a trade in a while, and I wanted to get in on the action so bad. As a result, I ended up with a 0.5% loss in my account.

What I learned

To be honest, I’m not really feeling THAT bad. One thing that I want to emphasize is that I ONLY lost 0.5%, half my usual position size. I wanted to be aggressive, which also meant that I must lessen my overall risk.

Nevertheless, I must admit that I was a little bit impatient. If I had just waited for the results BEFORE taking a trade, I would’ve probably gone short instead of long.

That’s it for me this week! For next week, I’ll continue keeping an eye on EUR/USD for possible places to go short and ride the overall trend.



  • fxsableng

    If you use MA as the main tool for your system, there’s this type of MA called LSMA, it’s a moving average based on linear regression (I’m not a math guy btw, so don’t ask me what it means :D).
    But the thing is, it’s really sensitive and more accurate in describing market direction, I think it’s a very powerful tool and I personally use it (can’t even live without it). You might want to check it out and see for yourself.