HLHB Weekly Update – August 5, 2011

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

It looks like the first week of forward-testing the HLHB Trend-Catcher system went alright. There were two signals this week with one closing as a winner while the other one turned out to be a loser.

The first signal, as you can see from the chart, was a valid one. The RSI was above 50 and the ADX had a value above 20. Unfortunately, the trade had to be closed quickly for a 1% loss on the next candle as a short signal materialized.

Now, the second valid signal, which still has two positions open, seems to be in the positive. The first position has its profit set 150 pips from entry at 1.4034. Meanwhile, the second position has a 150-pip trailing stop. I hope it works out!

Now let’s see, what happened with fundamentals this past week?

As Pip Diddy has mentioned time and again in his blog, risk aversion dictated market sentiment for the most part. Initially, investors felt jittery about the U.S. debt ceiling deal and towards the latter part of the week, talks about possible defaults in the euro zone hit airwaves. I read that yields on Spanish and Italian debt skyrocketed. It also didn’t help the euro that the ECB sounded worried about the economy.

I wonder how the much-anticipated NFP report (which is due to be released later at 12:30 pm GMT) would affect market sentiment. Whaddaya think? Would a positive figure spark risk appetite and would a negative figure make traders more risk averse? Or will we see the dollar get sold off when the jobs data disappoints?

Cast your votes in the poll below and don’t forget to tell me why in the comment box below. You can also hit me up on Facebook or Twitter (LoonieAdventure).

In other news, a lovely reader of mine, Lewis Posner (@LewisPosner1), decided to code the HLHB Trend-Catcher during his free time. He applied the system on the 1-hour time frame over a span of almost three years and the figures he got are pretty good. You should check out his post! Thanks a bunch again, Lewis!

Anyway, that’s all I had for y’all this week. I hope y’all enjoy the weekend. I know I will after my win on EUR/USD. Toodles!

  • Joshua Pearce Gibson

    Six people voted that we’d see a return to classic fundamentals… Hope those six people didn’t trade the news. Kind of got it dead wrong on that one.

  • Tvravikiran

    yeah, i am waiting, please update and we will see, how it workw.

  • Lee

    You might look into Sam Seiden. He has free webinars and he helped me escape from EMA and SMA crossover strategies. I am currently using one of his simple methods using bollinger bands and I am up 300 pips this month in a real account (well I am trading microlots) but that is beside the point.