HLHB Weekly Update – August 26, 2011

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart

As you can see, the Trend-Catcher was unable to produce any signals this week. I guess you could say that’s a good thing since EUR/USD basically just ranged the entire week. In any case, this really doesn’t change my opinion on the Trend-Catcher. I think it’s still a big letdown on the 4-hour.

That being said, I have decided to finally change my time frame to the one hour. Back-testing has shown that the 1-hour produces positive results. Hopefully, my forward-testing will show at least something similar!

As for my market thoughts, it looks like price action on EUR/USD was dominated by economic data for the most part. For instance, the PMI figures from euro zone that we saw early on in the week allowed the euro to rally against the dollar.

However, it pessimism over the Jackson Hole Symposium might have also limited the dollar’s gains. From what I’ve read, it seems like market junkies are expecting Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announce further stimulus. If he does, we may just see EUR/USD rally back up to 1.4500! But if he doesn’t, perhaps dollar bulls can finally breathe a sigh of relief and rock the charts.

Regardless, whether Big Ben meets market expectations or disappoints, I have a feeling we’re gonna see a lot of movement in the charts. So keep an ear out for what he has to say!



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  • Vic

    Benanke did not announce any QE, EUR/USD rally. Even without QE, market is buying EUR and dumping USD. Stop talking about dollar bulls.

  • Craig_FX

    Huck I agree with you. USD bulls could push the EURUSD lower if there is no signs of any stimulus in the pipeline. I am excited for an intense week