HLHB Weekly Update – August 12, 2011

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

I must admit, the new trial “HLHB Trend-Catcher” isn’t looking very well. All the four signals it generated this week ended up as losers. It didn’t filter out any of the fake outs as EUR/USD simply range. If I were trading this on a real account, I would already be down a whopping 4%.

While I know that the new trial system is subject to a lot of losses since it relies on catching trends, I can’t help but feel really lost in this mechanical system business. Last year was pretty good but this year… well, it kinda sucks!

Perhaps I should test out some of the systems in Forex Ninja’s Best Trading System of the Month contest? The Big E Trading and MAC(Daddy) systems look very promising. They aren’t as “mechanical” and “automatic” as I want them to be though.

In any case, I’ll continue forward-testing my Trend-Catcher system. This could just be a bad month. After all, it seems like the market environment has been pretty crazy this past week.

On the economic front, we saw risk aversion dominate market sentiment for the most part. To be honest, I was actually a bit surprised when the dollar rallied on Monday following S&P’s move to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. But with talks of debt contagion in Europe hitting airwaves, I guess it made sense that investors sought the safety of the U.S. dollar.

On the brighter side of things, my discretionary trading did well this week. My GBP/USD trade turned out profitable as I was able to sell the pair at a top. As I mentioned in my update, I jumped in on the trend again. I’m still thinking whether or not to keep it open during the weekend. What do you think I should do? Hit me up on Twitter (@LoonieAdventure), Facebook, or write your suggestions in the comment box below.

Whatever, I decide to do, I’ll be sure to update you all on Monday. Have a great weekend guys!

  • Graham Wadsworth

    I don’t think that a mechanical system works all the time.  I had a system which traded the EUR/USD and it worked for two years.  This year, it has just produced losses and I have given up on it.  The problem with trading EUR/USD is that you are trading dung against manure and it is all over the place. The EUR/CHF was a more predictable place to be trading this year.

  • Tradeviper

    Hello Huck,
           You are forgetting the context, we are in a ranging market and not trending. So you need a ranging tool. When people talk about drawdowns it basically means “breakdowns”, in other words the “system” stops working because the market has shifted. System people will say, you just have to hold on through the draw, until you are profitable again. I disagree. How about trading a couple of systems that fit different market dynamics/contexts, and also throw some option hedges in for seasoning. Then you have a tool set that cuts out the dreaded drawdown.

    Anyway you may want to look for something that will range well instead of picking up trends

    The Ever Trying To Help VIPER