GBP/USD: Is Risk Aversion Here to Stay? – Trade Canceled

Trade Canceled: 2010-11-30 1:33

Even though I got the direction right, it didn’t matter… because I wasn’t in the trade! Apparently, the bears were too eager to sell the pair that they didn’t even let it retrace a bit!

GBP/USD 4-hour Chart

Ahhh, risk aversion really is too strong, making it difficult for me to “sell high” and get a good price on the pair. Still, I think my trade idea was pretty and rationalization was pretty solid… Better luck next time, Huck! (That’s me being weird talking to myself.)

Trade Idea: 2010-11-24 2:22

GBP/USD 4-hour Chart

But before going into my trade idea, let me just confess something.

Here goes…

Guys, I still feel a little heartbroken from my most recent loss. Trading is really rough sometimes, which makes me think that I just won’t be any good. Do you have any advice on how to cope with losses? Ice cream? Dates? Get that new special edition Pink Friday MAC lipstick?!?

Sigh. In any case, I don’t think any good will come out of being all emotional on you guys. I better get right to my trade idea before I bore ya’ll to sleep.

For this week, going long dollar (or yen) seems to be the best trades to take as the fundamental environment is just filled things to get scared off!

For one, there’s the possibility of a debt contagion from Ireland (boo! Not again!). Secondly, the tensions between the two Koreas could escalate into a full-blown war. And thirdly, there are a couple of important economic reports coming out that could trigger another round of risk aversion.

Looking at price action charts, I noticed that GBP/USD already broke down below a major trend line. However, with Stochastic indicating that the pair is already oversold, I think we may see a soft bounce. That being said, I’m going to wait for price to retrace somewhere around the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the top of the descending channel before pulling the trigger.

Of course, what’s a trade idea without stops? For my stop loss, I set it a little bit above this week’s highs at 1.6100. If price reaches this level, GBP/USD will have already broken above the channel, invalidating my trade idea.

I’ll be aiming for the 1.5800 psychological handle as my first profit target. But ultimately, I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the pair to go blazin’ all the way down to previous support at 1.5650.

Short GBP/USD 1.5950, pt1 at 1.5800, pt2 at 1.5650, sl at 1.6100. As usual, I will go with my 1% risk.

  • ribrocks

    “Trading is really rough sometimes, which makes me think that I just won’t be any good.”

    Hey, Huck.

    I think ALL successful traders go through what you’re going through. In another forum, I’ve read that some of them have been losing money for 10, 15 years, and if I remember correctly, I’ve even read someone who traded for 20 years before being profitable!

    But those are rare cases, in my opinion. I think a couple of years is enough for someone to be profitable. (Some even claim they earn money from FX in less than 1 year. I don’t know about that.) Personally, I am on my 6th year as a trader. (I was introduced to FX 7 years ago, but I stopped trading in my 2nd year. You probably know what happened! :) ). Now, I don’t consider myself as a “pro,” as I haven’t withdrawn any money from my account yet. But, this is my first year with mucho positive pips.

    If you think that you can’t be any good in trading… Well, I have experienced that MULTIPLE times. I’ve felt desperation, frustration, depression, several times in my 6 years of trading. I sometimes thought that… maybe I should just quit… maybe this is not for me… maybe I am a loser!

    I’ve followed your posts in meetpips and here. And honestly, I think your analysis is WAY better than mine… technically and fundamentally. As I’ve said earlier, I don’t consider myself as a pro trader, so I usually don’t give out unsolicited advice. That’s why I don’t usually post comments/advices. But this time, I’ll make an exception. :)

    I’ve read someone comment on your post some time ago. Someone said that you shouldn’t be picking tops and bottoms. I think he’s spot on. That piece of old FX adage changed my results drastically for the better. And I think you should follow that adage, too.

    Now, I know that there are traders that earn from FX picking tops and bottoms. But I think, those traders are the gifted ones. Those are the Michael Jordans of FX trading. I am not one of those guys, so I don’t pick tops and bottoms.

    Hope this helps. Green pips, Huck. :)

  • ribrocks

    “Trading is really rough sometimes, which makes me think that I just won’t be any good.”

    Hey, Huck.

    I think ALL successful traders go through what you’re going through. In another forum, I’ve read that some of them have been losing money for 10, 15 years, and if I remember correctly, I’ve even read someone who traded for 20 years before being profitable!

    But those are rare cases, in my opinion. I think a couple of years is enough for someone to be profitable. (Some even claim they earn money from FX in less than 1 year. I don’t know about that.) Personally, I am on my 6th year as a trader. (I was introduced to FX 7 years ago, but I stopped trading in my 2nd year. You probably know what happened! :) ). Now, I don’t consider myself as a “pro,” as I haven’t withdrawn any money from my account yet. But, this is my first year with mucho positive pips.

    If you think that you can’t be any good in trading… Well, I have experienced that MULTIPLE times. I’ve felt desperation, frustration, depression, several times in my 6 years of trading. I sometimes thought that… maybe I should just quit… maybe this is not for me… maybe I am a loser!

    I’ve followed your posts in meetpips and here. And honestly, I think your analysis is WAY better than mine… technically and fundamentally. As I’ve said earlier, I don’t consider myself as a pro trader, so I usually don’t give out unsolicited advice. That’s why I don’t usually post comments/advices. But this time, I’ll make an exception. :)

    I’ve read someone comment on your post some time ago. Someone said that you shouldn’t be picking tops and bottoms. I think he’s spot on. That piece of old FX adage changed my results drastically for the better. And I think you should follow that adage, too.

    Now, I know that there are traders that earn from FX picking tops and bottoms. But I think, those traders are the gifted ones. Those are the Michael Jordans of FX trading. I am not one of those guys, so I don’t pick tops and bottoms.

    Hope this helps. Green pips, Huck. :)

  • Buckscoder

    “Do you have any advice on how to cope with losses? Ice cream? Dates? Get that new special edition Pink Friday MAC lipstick?!?”

    No date, no ice cream and no lipstick will make you a better trader. Analyzing why the trades didn’t work will. Maybe.

    Imho, you make repeatedly often several cardinal mistakes:

    – Predictions on fundamentals
    – Trades without system

    If you have a system what works, why don’t you stick to that? If I have a working car, why would I try to walk? Sure, it’s possible to walk. It’s even possible I will arrive at my destination. BUT only after a looong long and hard trip. The longer and harder, the farther the destination is away.

    It has nothing to do with losers. It has to do with decision making! Nobody is born as loser, nor winner. You can make yourself a winner or a loser. It just depends on your very own decision making.

    Anyways, good luck with your trade! :)

  • Buckscoder

    “Do you have any advice on how to cope with losses? Ice cream? Dates? Get that new special edition Pink Friday MAC lipstick?!?”

    No date, no ice cream and no lipstick will make you a better trader. Analyzing why the trades didn’t work will. Maybe.

    Imho, you make repeatedly often several cardinal mistakes:

    - Predictions on fundamentals
    – Trades without system

    If you have a system what works, why don’t you stick to that? If I have a working car, why would I try to walk? Sure, it’s possible to walk. It’s even possible I will arrive at my destination. BUT only after a looong long and hard trip. The longer and harder, the farther the destination is away.

    It has nothing to do with losers. It has to do with decision making! Nobody is born as loser, nor winner. You can make yourself a winner or a loser. It just depends on your very own decision making.

    Anyways, good luck with your trade! :)

  • Huck

    @ribrocks Wow, thank you! That actually made me feel so much better, knowing that some go through years of losses before becoming profitable. Of course, I hope to do it in a shorter amount of time, but knowing that gave me some peace of mind.

  • Buckscoder

    Huck,

    ur welcome, but no advice. Just opinions, lol.

    Yeah, I would throw two things to the trashcan: Predictions and fundamentals. Regarding my experience, predictions will not work. Plus technicals beat fundamentals. Why? Because the currency market is highly driven by speculation. Most speculators seem not to care about news. You may observe this while a good news may spark a selloff and vice versa. Some exceptions are long term fundamentals like interest changes or long term economy changes.

    If you want to be profitable, drive a casino, or a fortune teller business. Just don’t believe in your own predictions in the latter case, lol.

    You do have this hlhb system, right? Why not trading just this?

  • Huck

    @ribrocks Wow, thank you! That actually made me feel so much better, knowing that some go through years of losses before becoming profitable. Of course, I hope to do it in a shorter amount of time, but knowing that gave me some peace of mind.

    @Buckscoder Thanks for the advice! What do you mean trade without a system? Should I create a manual mechanical system and trade based solely on that on that to be really profitable? Should I ignore fundamentals?

  • Buckscoder

    Huck,

    ur welcome, but no advice. Just opinions, lol.

    Yeah, I would throw two things to the trashcan: Predictions and fundamentals. Regarding my experience, predictions will not work. Plus technicals beat fundamentals. Why? Because the currency market is highly driven by speculation. Most speculators seem not to care about news. You may observe this while a good news may spark a selloff and vice versa. Some exceptions are long term fundamentals like interest changes or long term economy changes.

    If you want to be profitable, drive a casino, or a fortune teller business. Just don’t believe in your own predictions in the latter case, lol.

    You do have this hlhb system, right? Why not trading just this?

  • Huck

    The HLHB system is more of an academic exercise than anything else. I believe that it is possible to trade mechanically, so I’d like to explore that aspect of forex trading too!

  • Huck

    The HLHB system is more of an academic exercise than anything else. I believe that it is possible to trade mechanically, so I’d like to explore that aspect of forex trading too!