EURUSD: Will Support Break? – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-9-13 00:47

PoD Chart

Not again! While both Cyclopip and Happy Pip were able to catch some awesome moves last week, poor Huck here ends up with a loss. I seriously want to cry… I don’t want to lose anymore.

I got faked out badly! After EURUSD made a new low, it just went back into its trading range and broke out the other way.

Stopped out at 1.2775 for -1.00%

Pipcrawler and the other FX-men warned me about the psychological stress associated with trading, but this is something I did not expect. Grrrr… I know that my loss aren’t really too big, but it’s just way too hard not to get attached to my trades. After all, this is my money I’m talking about!

Trade Idea: 2010-9-9 3:13

PoD Chart

How are you guys doing today? I’m finally ready to get back on the trading horse after missing out on my last trade. What better way to hit the ground running than to short EURUSD!

I’m taking this setup primarily because of how bearish I am on the euro. Earlier this week, the euro received a serious hammering across the board on the news that some of the banks that participated in the stress tests did not disclose fully how much government debt they were holding. (Holla to Forex Gump for this information!) If I remember correctly, the results of the stress tests already received a lot of bad press when they first came out as they were too lenient.

As far as technicals is concerned, I’m hoping to see the pair break its rising support since EURUSD has tested it several times before. The latest pullback was quite weak so I think it can go all the way down this time. In anticipation of the break, I’m placing my short stop order at 1.2650. If things don’t go my way, I’ll exit just beyond yesterday’s highs. I think this is a safe distance away since it’s already beyond the pair’s daily range.

Looking at the economic calendar, the upcoming weekly unemployment claims and trade balance from the US could serve as the catalyst for the breakout to the downside. If they come out worse than expected, we could see risk aversion come back swinging again.

But enough about that and let’s talk about where I plan to pocket pips! I actually have two positions on this trade. I’m eyeing the 1.2600 level for my first profit target. I haven’t determined my second profit target yet. I’m hoping to let it ride if the trade proves to be a winner, so I might just trail my remaining position by 110 pips! Wish me luck, guys!

Short EURUSD 1.2650, pt1 at 1.2600, pt yet to be determined, sl at 1.2775. I will risk 1% of my account.

  • Raza

    Now I am no expert but wouldn’t it be better to enter only when the trendline actually breaks. As i see it, the trendline is offering a pretty good support. Just this morning, the price touched yesterday’s lows but failed to penetrate the trendline. As i write, the price is at 1.2700 level.
    I am just asking.

  • Huck

    Yup! That’s why I have put a sell stop order below the trend line… If price touches my entry, that means that trend line has been broken… At least I think so :D

  • Raza

    Now I am no expert but wouldn’t it be better to enter only when the trendline actually breaks. As i see it, the trendline is offering a pretty good support. Just this morning, the price touched yesterday’s lows but failed to penetrate the trendline. As i write, the price is at 1.2700 level.
    I am just asking.

  • Huck

    Yup! That’s why I have put a sell stop order below the trend line… If price touches my entry, that means that trend line has been broken… At least I think so :D

  • rjw256

    Set up seems fine, but my only concern is you be very near over sold conditions at the point of entry. May have to cycle up before coming back down to give you enough breathing space for better entry.

  • rjw256

    Set up seems fine, but my only concern is you be very near over sold conditions at the point of entry. May have to cycle up before coming back down to give you enough breathing space for better entry.

  • Buckscoder

    Oh my. Why not short at 1.2750 or something with 25 pips risk and 150 pips profit target?

    Beside of this and the posters before mentioned fact that it is oversold, the daily and weekly prices are very near above a trendline and if that trendline holds, eurusd will go up. It seems to be a ranging market right now. Technically there is not much what looks like a big drop will happen soon.

    Anyways, good luck for your trade!

  • Buckscoder

    Oh my. Why not short at 1.2750 or something with 25 pips risk and 150 pips profit target?

    Beside of this and the posters before mentioned fact that it is oversold, the daily and weekly prices are very near above a trendline and if that trendline holds, eurusd will go up. It seems to be a ranging market right now. Technically there is not much what looks like a big drop will happen soon.

    Anyways, good luck for your trade!

  • Buckscoder

    I forgot, there will probably be a hammer on the daily today and there is a hammer on the weekly 2 weeks ago.

  • Buckscoder

    I forgot, there will probably be a hammer on the daily today and there is a hammer on the weekly 2 weeks ago.

  • willariza

    Oh damn it!Huck just broke my heart! I think every trader could relate to that sentiment and isn’t a pretty one. :(

  • willariza

    Oh damn it!Huck just broke my heart! I think every trader could relate to that sentiment and isn’t a pretty one. :(

  • TalonD

    looks to me like you should buy when price hits the trend line… ?

  • wolfpup77

    I feel your pain, Huck :(. I kind’ve had the feeling that the rising trendline wouldn’t actually break, and so it didn’t! Oh well, just remember that you actually got a whopping 400 pips on that short EUR/USD trade a few months back.

  • SweetPip

    What happened to your system of using EMA crossovers & stochs with entry 30 pips above/below the cross candle? Just asking cause you didn’t mention any of that in your trade idea, so wondering if you changed your system. If you did change your system, I’d say change it to fading S&R levels instead as breakouts get more fakeouts…lol. ;)

  • TalonD

    looks to me like you should buy when price hits the trend line… ?

  • wolfpup77

    I feel your pain, Huck :(. I kind’ve had the feeling that the rising trendline wouldn’t actually break, and so it didn’t! Oh well, just remember that you actually got a whopping 400 pips on that short EUR/USD trade a few months back.

  • SweetPip

    What happened to your system of using EMA crossovers & stochs with entry 30 pips above/below the cross candle? Just asking cause you didn’t mention any of that in your trade idea, so wondering if you changed your system. If you did change your system, I’d say change it to fading S&R levels instead as breakouts get more fakeouts…lol. ;)

  • njanto

    When the market loves you it loves you and when it hates you It hates you. eur/usd has been jiving thies days. Its hit a lot of People. So your not crying alone, I am crying with you. Love your posts

  • njanto

    When the market loves you it loves you and when it hates you It hates you. eur/usd has been jiving thies days. Its hit a lot of People. So your not crying alone, I am crying with you. Love your posts

  • Huck

    Huhuhu…

    @SweetPip

    The crossover system is a totally different strategy. That’s more of an academic practice, because I want to see if mechanical trading actually works.

    These regular blog posts are trade ideas using a discretionary approach. Hehe :)

  • Huck

    Huhuhu…

    @SweetPip

    The crossover system is a totally different strategy. That’s more of an academic practice, because I want to see if mechanical trading actually works.

    These regular blog posts are trade ideas using a discretionary approach. Hehe :)