EUR/USD: Revving Up for Another Down Move? – Trade Closed

Trade Update: 2012-4-18 03:18

EUR/USD Chart

Awww, it looks like the bulls have returned! After I closed the first half of my position at 1.3000, price immediately reversed and returned to my entry point. A win is a win though, so I guess I should be happy.

But I’d be lying if I said I’m not disappointed. I feel that I could have managed my trade better. If I took profit on both positions at 1.3000 I would have gotten a bigger reward-to-risk ratio.

Sold EUR/USD at market (1.3169):
First half closed at 1.3000: +169 pips
Second half closed at 1.3169: +0 pips
Total Gain: +169 pips / +0.53%

Ugh! I really have to work on managing my trades so that my account doesn’t see a repeat of what happened in the first quarter. Got any words of wisdom for little ole me?

Trade Update: 2012-4-13 02:20

EUR/USD Chart

As you can see, a doji and a bearish candle formed right after price tapped the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this is a sign that the bears are starting to jump in, especially with the Stochastic showing that the pair is oversold.

On the fundamental side of things, China’s GDP figures came in worse-than-expected at 8.1% versus the 8.4% forecast. I believe that the Asian superpower’s disappointing growth would weigh on market sentiment in the next few trading days as investors seem to be paying more attention to global economic growth now.

With both the technical and fundamental sides of this trade confirming my bearish bias, I sold at market (I got in at 1.3169) with a stop loss of almost 100 pips at 1.3270. I have yet to determine my profit target because I believe the pair will probably forge new lows. Let’s see how this trade turns out! Wish me luck!

Sold EUR/USD at market (1.3169), SL at 1.3270, PT to be determined, 1% risk

Trade Idea: 2012-4-12 00:07

EUR/USD Chart

EUR/USD just bounced off support around its previous low around 1.3050. In my own humble opinion, the pair’s recent consolidation looks like a bearish flag. I’m expecting the pair to resume its downtrend once it reaches the area between 1.3150 and 1.3200. Take note that this area coincides with the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.

I have to admit though, I’m a bit scared. 1.3050 seems like a strong support level for EUR/USD. So, I’m gonna wait for confirmation. When reversal candlesticks materialize around the area, that’s the only time when I jump in and sell the pair. I would then place my stop a little above 1.3250.

I think the trade makes sense fundamentally too. There have been some recent bad omens that have kept risk trades at bay.

For one, China, the main country that has been driving economic growth since the financial crisis, is slowing quicker than initially expected. In March, the year-on-year growth of imports was a measly 5.3%.

Secondly, the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds touched 6% a few days ago as traders fear another debt crisis. And lastly, currency experts are predicting that the euro will probably drop by more than 5% throughout 2012.

To recap, I’m looking to sell EUR/USD based on the fundamentals, the technicals, and the overall risk environment:

Sell EUR/USD around 1.3150 and 1.3200, stop loss around 1.3250, profit target yet to be determined. Risk disclosure.

Now, let me go off topic and tell you a short story that I need some advice on. Yesterday, my sister and her boyfriend of six months broke up. The boyfriend apparently went to the house of his ex to give her a book without telling my sister.

While nothing happened between my sister’s boyfriend and his ex, the boyfriend lied to my sister when asked what he was doing at that time to avoid a long argument. Unfortunately, my sister found out that her boyfriend lied and decided to breakup with him.

While I am torn on the whole break up thing (the guy shouldn’t have lied but part of me thinks that my sister overreacted because he was just doing his ex a small friendly favor), I do not know how I should act towards the ex-boyfriend.

You see, he’s a good friend of mine but at the same time, my sister is… well, my sister. Will I be “betraying” my sister if I continue to hang out with her ex-boyfriend? Let me hear your thoughts, especially if you have gone through the same thing.

XOXO,

Huck

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  • ascms

    Huck,
    I do not feel that you would be ‘betraying’ your sister if you were to hang out with you friend.  I am assuming here that everyone involved are adults.  So if I were in your place I would tell your sister before I would hang out with your friend

  • wilderp

    MACD is just turning over on a 4-hour chart. Will be holding over the weekend it looks like. Time to go test the neckline at 1.3000. If it breaks, this could be a huge move to go test the 1.2625 low. After that, the descending channel points to 1.1880 by July/August. We’ll see what happens.

  • Lengzzz

    i was in your sister’s shoes, difference was that my ex treated me really badly, so i was quite miffed that she continued to befriend and go out with him socially.

    why dun u try being the peacemaker between yr sister and fren?  i think it’s just a little lover’s tiff.  yr fren was wrong to lie but it was a white lie.  they just have to talk it out.

  • alwjmonster

    I’m With You Huck.. let’s pray hard, dear..

  • reno

     First off, thank you for the simple strategy I read about a few days ago.  I call it trading crossovers.  I’m very new here.  Please share any long or short term ideas.  I love numbers and will more than likely crash my acct very soon, but I’m having a blast in the process.  I’m still learning the fibo.  I’m a sponge for good information.  I see you’ve had a number of responses to your personal issue.  I fix problems and issues by asking ‘good’ questions.  The question of the day for you…  it’s neither right nor wrong but something to ponder and it will help.  How will this event/decision shape my life in 12 months, 3 years, etc.  b.t.w. I owe you a lot for giving me my 1st awesome trading idea and I thank you for that.  Make it an incredible weekend.

    • huck

      Thank you for your kind words, reno.

  • akaAni

    Great setup, well rewarded too.  Euro landslide in the past few hours, congrats

  • Kioniboy84

    huck i want to date you!! u sound sexy ! xxx im from london…nice trade i took it aswell from 1.31940 x tp at 1.3050

  • Stefanlaush

    first of all: be happy that you made a decent profit! second: tbh i don’t know what target you aimed for with your second position. between 1.3000 and 1.3050 there is a strong resistance, as you can see from your own chart! i would not bet on breaking it, the probability is just too low. if you really wanted to have a go at breaking it, it would have been wise to at least adjust your SL to 1.31 after reaching 1.30.

  • riyan

    thanks huck for potential good setup. about you and your sister problem, it’s complicated if you think it’s complicated, vice versa, it will simple if you think it simple:).. 

    let’s play scenario ‘if i was my sister’. if you are became your sister and your sister became you, then will you think your sister ‘betraying’ you when she hang around with your ex?

    if yes, then you should not do that.
    if no, then it’s okay you hang around with her ex.

    from my own opinion, you hang around with her ex as friend, i think it’s has no problem.. but if it’s continue with serious relationship, i think it’s better to talk about it with your sister (this will be serious problem, i thinks:))

    well, i just human, if i have wrong opinions then forgive me.. just wanna help..

    btw, keep make a good post. i will looking for it.:)

    • huck

      Nah we’re just friends. It’ll never more than that! He’s my sister’s ex for crying out loud… Though I do know it happens to other people sometimes!

      • riyan

        don’t be angry huck:).. just wanna help, no offense..

        btw, thanks for good setup but i had just conservative, i enter at 1.3120. closed at 1.3070. thanks a lot huck!
        thank u very much:)

        • huck

           Oh, don’t worry! I’m not angry at all. :) Your welcome, by the way.

  • Velting

    nice call.. wish i seen this earlier.

  • Necrobadger

    nice, 50 pips in the basket (it reached 1.3150), but right now (2:40 pm gmt +1 dst) the pair is struggling on the key support at 1.3135. On H1, the stoch remains close to 20, on H4 is falling after crossing back the overbought area. Let’s see what Bernanke “the USD killah” will say this time. Good WE to everyone in advance :)

  • alwjmonster

    Hi huck, mind tell us how old are you and your sister? haha sorry just out of curiousity, if it’s confidential then never mind. :) good luck with your trades.

    • huck

       Haha, we’re both under 20. :) I do hope get in a good price. :)

      • huck

        Under 30, I mean. :)

  • Stevecsd

    Hello Huck,

    Your 169 pip trade did well. I think I can help. I looked over your Q1 trades and I would like to review those with you.

     Steven Currie     stevencurrie2@gmail.com

  • Richard

    Sounds logical on both the technical and fundamental fronts. I’m certainly bearish on the EURUSD at present. Good luck!

    May I ask what broker you use for the 4 decimal places?

    Re your personal situation, ex’s are always a touchy subject. Yes, he lied, but it was a white lie. Don’t think that should affect your friendship…

    • huck

      Since we want to remain as unbiased as possible here in BabyPips.com, I can’t divulge my broker! My charting platform, however, is xtick. You can check it out at xtick.com.

  • Shaokhano

    I love your trade idea and am probably going to do the same thing. On the personal issue, well I am an older gentlemen and in my time I have seen thing’s like this happen. I’m guessing your sister is probably under 30 so I wouldn’t worry about it to much. 

  • pipVader

    Great setup and good luck with this one!

  • SwordOfManagement

    Only two types of guys have female friends:

    a) they plan on getting lucky
    b) they are gay.
    c) there is no c

    • huck

      That’s a pretty cynical view to have! Then again, there are really some jerks like that…

  • moses

    Thanks on the trade idea…
    The other thing…..Go short on ur sister’s ex…

    • huck

       What does that even mean?!? Haha.

  • Diletarra

    Looks like “risk on” even if it is short term. Good set-up though. The thing with your sister, she is right. This isn’t some random friend he’s doing a solid. It’s someone he knows intimately and at any moment sparks could fly. Coupled with the fact he lied, I think you should let your sister decide wether you can hang with him or not. She might be cool with it. However, your blood is your blood and that should come before anyone or anything. IMHO.

  • Hourams

    Nice trade. If I were you I wouldn’t even think of not winning on the 2nd half of my trade. I personally manage my trades in increments of 4. So If I have lets say 20 lots, I sell 5 lots on each target and move my stop to just above the first target. Sometimes you get run over and then the trade moves in your favour, SO WHAT! Who cares as long as your winners are more than your losers.

  • ascms

    Huck,
    I do not feel that you would be ‘betraying’ your sister if you were to hang out with you friend.  I am assuming here that everyone involved are adults.  So if I were in your place I would tell your sister before I would hang out with your friend

  • riyan

    thanks huck for potential good setup. about you and your sister problem, it’s complicated if you think it’s complicated, vice versa, it will simple if you think it simple:).. 

    let’s play scenario ‘if i was my sister’. if you are became your sister and your sister became you, then will you think your sister ‘betraying’ you when she hang around with your ex?

    if yes, then you should not do that.
    if no, then it’s okay you hang around with her ex.

    from my own opinion, you hang around with her ex as friend, i think it’s has no problem.. but if it’s continue with serious relationship, i think it’s better to talk about it with your sister (this will be serious problem, i thinks:))

    well, i just human, if i have wrong opinions then forgive me.. just wanna help..

    btw, keep make a good post. i will looking for it.:)

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

      Nah we’re just friends. It’ll never more than that! He’s my sister’s ex for crying out loud… Though I do know it happens to other people sometimes!

      • riyan

        don’t be angry huck:).. just wanna help, no offense..

        btw, thanks for good setup but i had just conservative, i enter at 1.3120. closed at 1.3070. thanks a lot huck!
        thank u very much:)

        • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

           Oh, don’t worry! I’m not angry at all. :) Your welcome, by the way.

  • Shaokhano

    I love your trade idea and am probably going to do the same thing. On the personal issue, well I am an older gentlemen and in my time I have seen thing’s like this happen. I’m guessing your sister is probably under 30 so I wouldn’t worry about it to much. 

  • alwjmonster

    Hi huck, mind tell us how old are you and your sister? haha sorry just out of curiousity, if it’s confidential then never mind. :) good luck with your trades.

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

       Haha, we’re both under 20. :) I do hope get in a good price. :)

      • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

        Under 30, I mean. :)

  • Diletarra

    Looks like “risk on” even if it is short term. Good set-up though. The thing with your sister, she is right. This isn’t some random friend he’s doing a solid. It’s someone he knows intimately and at any moment sparks could fly. Coupled with the fact he lied, I think you should let your sister decide wether you can hang with him or not. She might be cool with it. However, your blood is your blood and that should come before anyone or anything. IMHO.

  • alwjmonster

    I’m With You Huck.. let’s pray hard, dear..

  • Lengzzz

    i was in your sister’s shoes, difference was that my ex treated me really badly, so i was quite miffed that she continued to befriend and go out with him socially.

    why dun u try being the peacemaker between yr sister and fren?  i think it’s just a little lover’s tiff.  yr fren was wrong to lie but it was a white lie.  they just have to talk it out.

  • Richard

    Sounds logical on both the technical and fundamental fronts. I’m certainly bearish on the EURUSD at present. Good luck!

    May I ask what broker you use for the 4 decimal places?

    Re your personal situation, ex’s are always a touchy subject. Yes, he lied, but it was a white lie. Don’t think that should affect your friendship…

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

      Since we want to remain as unbiased as possible here in BabyPips.com, I can’t divulge my broker! My charting platform, however, is xtick. You can check it out at xtick.com.

  • http://twitter.com/thePIPmachine pipVader

    Great setup and good luck with this one!

  • Necrobadger

    nice, 50 pips in the basket (it reached 1.3150), but right now (2:40 pm gmt +1 dst) the pair is struggling on the key support at 1.3135. On H1, the stoch remains close to 20, on H4 is falling after crossing back the overbought area. Let’s see what Bernanke “the USD killah” will say this time. Good WE to everyone in advance :)

  • akaAni

    Great setup, well rewarded too.  Euro landslide in the past few hours, congrats

  • Velting

    nice call.. wish i seen this earlier.

  • Kioniboy84

    huck i want to date you!! u sound sexy ! xxx im from london…nice trade i took it aswell from 1.31940 x tp at 1.3050

  • wilderp

    MACD is just turning over on a 4-hour chart. Will be holding over the weekend it looks like. Time to go test the neckline at 1.3000. If it breaks, this could be a huge move to go test the 1.2625 low. After that, the descending channel points to 1.1880 by July/August. We’ll see what happens.

  • reno

     First off, thank you for the simple strategy I read about a few days ago.  I call it trading crossovers.  I’m very new here.  Please share any long or short term ideas.  I love numbers and will more than likely crash my acct very soon, but I’m having a blast in the process.  I’m still learning the fibo.  I’m a sponge for good information.  I see you’ve had a number of responses to your personal issue.  I fix problems and issues by asking ‘good’ questions.  The question of the day for you…  it’s neither right nor wrong but something to ponder and it will help.  How will this event/decision shape my life in 12 months, 3 years, etc.  b.t.w. I owe you a lot for giving me my 1st awesome trading idea and I thank you for that.  Make it an incredible weekend.

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thank you for your kind words, reno.

  • SwordOfManagement

    Only two types of guys have female friends:

    a) they plan on getting lucky
    b) they are gay.
    c) there is no c

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

      That’s a pretty cynical view to have! Then again, there are really some jerks like that…

  • moses

    Thanks on the trade idea…
    The other thing…..Go short on ur sister’s ex…

    • http://www.babypips.com Hucklekiwi Pip

       What does that even mean?!? Haha.

  • Hourams

    Nice trade. If I were you I wouldn’t even think of not winning on the 2nd half of my trade. I personally manage my trades in increments of 4. So If I have lets say 20 lots, I sell 5 lots on each target and move my stop to just above the first target. Sometimes you get run over and then the trade moves in your favour, SO WHAT! Who cares as long as your winners are more than your losers.

  • Stefanlaush

    first of all: be happy that you made a decent profit! second: tbh i don’t know what target you aimed for with your second position. between 1.3000 and 1.3050 there is a strong resistance, as you can see from your own chart! i would not bet on breaking it, the probability is just too low. if you really wanted to have a go at breaking it, it would have been wise to at least adjust your SL to 1.31 after reaching 1.30.

  • Stevecsd

    Hello Huck,

    Your 169 pip trade did well. I think I can help. I looked over your Q1 trades and I would like to review those with you.

     Steven Currie     stevencurrie2@gmail.com