EUR/USD: Eyeing Support at 1.3300 – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2013-6-19 1:17 a.m. EST

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

EUR/USD just keeps on going higher and higher! But with the much-anticipated FOMC statement on tap, I gotta let go.

I bought the pair last week after it tested the 1.3300 handle and got in at 1.3310. Since then, EUR/USD has traded higher and has even gone up to 1.3400. I was eyeing to take profit much higher but I don’t want to risk having an open position when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives his speech later. So, I just decided to close my trade early at 1.3397.

Long EUR/USD at 1.3310, closed at 1.3397: +87 pips / +0.23%

Trade Idea: 2013-6-13 3:15 a.m. EST

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

Boohoo, EUR/USD is moving higher without me! But I think I’ve got a chance to jump in long on a pullback soon, as the Stochastic shows that conditions are oversold. I admit that it sucks that I’m having a hard time jumping in EUR/USD’s uptrend even though my directional bias is correct. But I’m not giving up yet! Hopefully, this long EUR/USD trade idea of mine that I just cooked up will work out.

I’m hoping to go long once price retraces to the 1.3300 level. More than being a major psychological level, it also lines up nicely with the previous week high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. I don’t have a set profit target yet as I’m going to use a 70-pip trailing stop. That will put it below all the major Fib levels and the 100 SMA. I set it like this because it’s clear that the trend is upwards, and I don’t want to exit too early in the event the trade goes my way.

The success (or failure, eeep!) of my trade will depend on two catalysts.

The first one is the U.S. retail sales report for May. Due later today, the report could either boost the dollar and send EUR/USD lower if it shows that consumer spending was exceptionally strong during the month. Analysts say that a reading of at least 1.5% would be dollar bullish.

On the other hand, a disappointing figure could prove to be beneficial for my trade as it would tame speculations about the Fed withdrawing some of its stimulus measures soon.

The other one would be Germany’s Constitutional Court. As you’ve probably also heard, the court is having a hearing to see whether or not the ECB’s OMT program is legal in the German law. Although no one really thinks that the Court will stand in the way of the OMT’s operation, it still poses a risk to the euro’s rally until the court issues a final ruling affirming that it is not.

I’ll be keeping close tabs on these events as I keep track of EUR/USD. Again, to recap, my plan is to:

Buy EUR/USD at 1.3300, 70-pip trailing stop, PT to be determined. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.


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  • PipMeHappy

    Good plan! However, with recent news… from Europe sending more ripples through the single currency… The Jan/Feb. resistance at 1.3387 has held and the Euro has now about forty pips (currently at 1.3347) in less than an hour… Core countries like Italy, with “Letta’s lethargy” headlines this morning, are struggling to implement serious economic reform… The split in the Governing Council is clear, with Mario Draghi’s positive tones being unable to shift sentiment significantly. Clearly, the technical move you highlighted has momentum: but, while this morning’s pullback may only be temporary (what is forty pips, in the greater scheme of things), there are signs that the 1.3488 50% Fib. retracement (from the May 2011 high to July 2012 low) may be too high a push…

    The events docket for EUR/USD this week is thin, with the FOMC meeting next week being the higher potential catalyst for the Greenback…More to the point, as John Kicklighter (Chief Strategist at DailyFX) keeps reminding us, if the Equities (e.g. S&P500) should come off its months-long rise to record highs and break to the downside, this could signal a realignment of economics to a USD safe-haven (risk-aversion) scenario: in short, a likely confirmation of QE3 “taper” could push the USD high again, and, consequently, the single currency back down…

    Happy trading.

  • nic

    @PipMeHappy: You said the EUR will fall the last time you posted comment on Huck’s recent long trade (with profit) and now you are still saying the pair will somehow drop. When will the pair drop??

    • PipMeHappy

      @nic… I wish I knew! I will be watching closely the next
      four working days, and get back to you 🙂

      • huck

        It’s possible also, with 1.3400 holding… Let’s see if the resistance manages to keep intact!

        • PipMeHappy

          Indeed, it is holding… And, if you look at the EUR/USD day chart, does that last (red) candle not look like a reversal signal of the uptrend?

  • nic

    @Pipmehappy :Exactly!! Nobody will know when the pair will drop or rise. So , if “hucks” thinks that the pair will rise, then so be it and wish her luck, Why the need to keep “reminding” that the pair WILL drop but you yourself cannot tell when??? Even I can tell that the pair will drop sooner or later but I just do not know when but what good are this kind of “advice” or information. God bless you!!

    • PipMeHappy

      Point taken 🙂

  • hansemans

    Why not put your SL at let’s say 1.3360 and wait what will happen after the FOMC statement. You then have some profit locked in and leave chances open for more profit. If EURUSD drops you still would have some profit. I trade myself with positive SL all the time, letting trades run as long as possible, locking in profit at major support-/resistance levels.