Trade Closed: 2013-6-19 1:17 a.m. EST
EUR/USD just keeps on going higher and higher! But with the much-anticipated FOMC statement on tap, I gotta let go.
I bought the pair last week after it tested the 1.3300 handle and got in at 1.3310. Since then, EUR/USD has traded higher and has even gone up to 1.3400. I was eyeing to take profit much higher but I don’t want to risk having an open position when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives his speech later. So, I just decided to close my trade early at 1.3397.
Long EUR/USD at 1.3310, closed at 1.3397: +87 pips / +0.23%
Trade Idea: 2013-6-13 3:15 a.m. EST
Boohoo, EUR/USD is moving higher without me! But I think I’ve got a chance to jump in long on a pullback soon, as the Stochastic shows that conditions are oversold. I admit that it sucks that I’m having a hard time jumping in EUR/USD’s uptrend even though my directional bias is correct. But I’m not giving up yet! Hopefully, this long EUR/USD trade idea of mine that I just cooked up will work out.
I’m hoping to go long once price retraces to the 1.3300 level. More than being a major psychological level, it also lines up nicely with the previous week high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. I don’t have a set profit target yet as I’m going to use a 70-pip trailing stop. That will put it below all the major Fib levels and the 100 SMA. I set it like this because it’s clear that the trend is upwards, and I don’t want to exit too early in the event the trade goes my way.
The success (or failure, eeep!) of my trade will depend on two catalysts.
The first one is the U.S. retail sales report for May. Due later today, the report could either boost the dollar and send EUR/USD lower if it shows that consumer spending was exceptionally strong during the month. Analysts say that a reading of at least 1.5% would be dollar bullish.
On the other hand, a disappointing figure could prove to be beneficial for my trade as it would tame speculations about the Fed withdrawing some of its stimulus measures soon.
The other one would be Germany’s Constitutional Court. As you’ve probably also heard, the court is having a hearing to see whether or not the ECB’s OMT program is legal in the German law. Although no one really thinks that the Court will stand in the way of the OMT’s operation, it still poses a risk to the euro’s rally until the court issues a final ruling affirming that it is not.
I’ll be keeping close tabs on these events as I keep track of EUR/USD. Again, to recap, my plan is to:
Buy EUR/USD at 1.3300, 70-pip trailing stop, PT to be determined. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.