With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.
We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.
Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.
Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.
Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.
Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.
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US exports slouched in October. Actually, they tanked so badly the trade deficit widened despite a drop in imports. Read more
To some degree, it seems Saudi Arabia is alleviating some geopolitical premium in crude prices, as the world's top producer has not pared back its production despite a pullback in demand. Read more
Corn prices have gone ballistic in the last two weeks as supplies are hurt and further threatened by a heat wave. But the move in corn prices is primarily due to traders running away screaming "Auntie Em! Auntie Em!" ... rather than jumping on any prospects for a sustained bullish uptrend. Read more
We get a sense global liquidity is draining back to the center from the periphery. We know we are not alone in this view, as many have warned about the European banking system's deleveraging globally, i.e. reducing loan exposure. Read more
Pontificating from our "armchair economist" perch today; with a two-handed analysis: On the one hand, Germany's grand strategy of forced austerity in order to create low cost manufacturing zones for German industrialists across the Eurozone (or "Greater Germany" as realists are implicitly viewing it) and its continuous captive market export demand form said Eurozone are in jeopardy. Read more
Technically, the sour news corresponds with a corrective rally that may have hit resistance that won't again be tested for a while. While the S&P 500 (below) is certainly vulnerable, markets in Europe and Asia are especially vulnerable in the current environment - shorting (or buying put options) on select ETFs like FXI (iShares China), EWI (iShares Italy), or EEM (iShares Emerging Markets) may make sense now. Read more
I guess it is no different this time. There are always more questions than answers. I guess the first question is: Are we finally seeing a change to the "all one market" liquidity-driven correlations in global markets? Read more
First, let me be clear. It has been a very long time since we had truly free markets. Since governments were formed, early in civilization, they have always had a hand in the market. We don't have free markets; we instead have "quasi free markets" and they seem to be becoming more "quasi" by the day. Read more
Are there no limits whatsoever to monetary policy? It is beyond pathetic that a rising stock market seems the only substitute for real policy from our "best and brightest." Read more
What do William Lowndes Yancey, Edmund Ruffin, and Geert Wilders have in common? Even though the first two owned black slaves in the 1800s and the last of that trio has spoken out against the spread of Islam across Europe in recent years, no - they're not all racists. Read more
It seems the European Central Bankers didn't read the latest issue of Institutional Investor. Had they perused the pages, they may have stumbled on an acceptable strategy from former Goldman Sachs managing partner slash US Treasury Secretary slash Citigroup chairman, Robert Rubin. Read more
The Reserve Bank of Australia kicked the door wide in its last meeting, sealing the deal on expectations for a coming interest rate cut Down Under. It seems growth in Australia may be in some trouble. Read more
I finally figured it all out. Our global policymakers are nothing more than Wizard of Oz aficionados (the movie as the book is way over their collective heads). They just love happy endings. Let's just get all the little people to follow down the yellow brick road and it will all turn out just fine, our pols want to believe. Read more
China holds more than 1 million tonnes of commercial stocks of refined copper cathode currently, a level last seen in 2009, due to high imports and weak domestic demand, which may slow arrivals in the second quarter, analysts said on Tuesday. Read more
John Ross asked me this morning if I could create a scenario whereby stocks fall. I laughed and said, "Well ... no!" And maybe that is the point. No doubt 'if you are not long, you are wrong' is playing out in spades. But we've seen that sentiment many times before near tops. Read more
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