Ugly Double Top on AUD/JPY – Stopped Out

Trade Closed: 2012-09-24 23:45

AUD/JPY 1-hour Chart

Well… that sucked.

Just when I thought I was gonna go home a big winner, AUD/JPY found tough support at the 81.00 level, and price bounced right off the major psychological level. The Aussie then rallied hard on Friday, surging back above the 82.00 handle, hitting my stop loss in the process!

Stop loss hit at 82.10: -60 pips / -.50%

What sucks about this trade is that I was about 20 pips away from hitting my take profit point. I didn’t really expect to see that much support at the 81.00 level, seeing as how 80.80 was the major support level in previous weeks.

I did consider moving my stop loss to my entry point, which would have given me a risk-free trade. However, I felt it was a little premature and thought that it would be hit for sure, so I decided to leave it open and see how price would react to the former area of interest at 81.75.

Unfortunately, the former resistance-turned-support level didn’t hold too well, and I got stopped out. The only consolation I take from this trade is that I only risked 0.50% on this trade.

Tough luck but it happens. Hopefully I bounce back this week and end the quarter on a solid note!

Trade Idea: 2012-09-20 00:30

So I woke up from a short nap earlier to find an ugly little thing on my trading desk. As it turns out, I left my mirror on the table again. Hahaha!

Then I turned on my computer and flipped up my charts, only to find another ugly little thing staring at me:

AUD/JPY 1-hour Chart

Yep, that’s a double top formation, baby! But yeah, it is a bit ROUGH.

Anyway, that doesn’t matter, because AUD/JPY just broke through the pattern’s neckline around 81.75. If you scroll back a bit, you’ll notice that this level actually held as both support and resistance many times in the past. Plus, it’s right in the area of the bottom weekly ATR!

Needless to say, once I saw the pair close convincingly below this level, I didn’t hesitate to sell this sucker.

Sold AUD/JPY at 81.50, stop loss at 82.10, profit target at 80.80.

Yeah, the reward-to-risk ratio isn’t too attractive at just a little over 1:1, but I think the setup presents a solid case for an AUD/JPY short. Besides, I just read Forex Gump’s latest piece on the RBA meeting minutes… and it tells me that fundamentals favor an Aussie sell-off as well.

In any case, I only put 0.50% of my account on the line, so even if this turns out to be a dud, I won’t get hurt too badly.

What do y’all think? Does this trade have what it takes to be a winner?

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  • സലീം (Salim)

    I got burned yesterday on this pair. Now I think it will work on your favour. But, one question how the heck the pair get strong while BOJ measured more monetary easing? Any idea.

    Good luck..

    • cyclopip

      I think it may be a combination of Aussie weakness, as well the realization that the BOJ added just 10 trillion JPY, which isn’t that much really. I think if the BOJ really wants to weaken the yen, it’ll have to intervene directly.

  • RB

    There appears to be a head and shoulder’s pattern develop on the daily chart. The price however is still within the medium term bull channel. Would you consider a long around say… 80.30? With a PT around 83 and a SL around the neckline (just below 80)?

    • cyclopip

      I see what you mean!

      Hmm… I’d probably wait until it draws closer to 80.00 (it’s at 80.46 as I write this), then I’ll decide whether to buy or sell, depending on candlesticks formations.