Trade Cancelled: 2012-11-05 22:40
No Halloween goodies for this little trick-or-treater… I missed out when EUR/GBP decided to make it rain pips!
Just as I had predicted, the pound turned out to be more resilient than the euro, thanks to renewed concerns about Spain and Greece.
Great news right? Wrong!
I made the right call when it came to direction, but the wrong call about timing! I thought the pair would climb a few pips more and test the area of confluence around .8100 (it was such a price magnet in the past!), but it appears the market had other plans in mind. EUR/GBP proceeded to fall to the .8000 handle (a 70-pip drop) and it hasn’t looked back since!
Since price has already hit my would-be profit target, my trade has essentially been invalidated, so I’m canceling my orders for now.
I gotta admit, I’m a little bummed out to see that I let another potential winner slip through my fingers, but then again, no harm done was done to me or my account, so I can’t complain too much. Being able to preserve your capital is an achievement in itself!
Anyway, I hope you guys had better luck with this pair than I did. Thanks for following, fellas! Now, on to the next trade!
Trade Idea: 2012-10-31 02:23
Greetings, fellas! I know y’all love your sweets, so here’s a tasty treat, just in time for the Halloween festivities!
The euro zone continues to be haunted by concerns about Spain and Greece, and this has taken its toll on the shared currency. These debt problems are just like Dwight Howard’s free throw woes – they just won’t go away!
Meanwhile, the pound was relatively stronger last week thanks to good GDP figures. The British economy grew by 1.0% last quarter, after it was projected to post a growth of just 0.6%.
In the short term, I expect this sell-off on EUR/GBP to continue and that’s why I’m looking to establish a short position. Nobody knows whether Greece will be able to land its next tranche of funds and there’s no telling how much longer Spain will hold out on requesting for a bailout.
Luckily for me, there’s a sweet technical setup that could help me land a good entry point!
Not only has EUR/GBP broken out of a wedge (indicating more bearishness for the pair), but it seems to me that a potential head and shoulders formation is emerging on the 4-hour chart. I decided to take out the Fibonacci tool and it looks like the 61.8% Fib lines up neatly with the .8100 MaPs, which was also a major resistance level a couple weeks back. Could it now serve as a resistance point for the second shoulder as well?
Here’s my gameplan:
Short EUR/GBP at .8100, take profit at .8010, stop loss at .8130.
If this plays out as well as I hope it does, I’d be taking home a reward-to-risk ratio of 3:1. Not bad, eh?
My only concern about this trade though is that when I zoom out to the daily chart, I can see that the pair has somewhat been trending higher. I have a feeling that this may finally give way, but I’m far from certain. That said, I’m scaling back my risk and only putting 0.5% of my account on the line.
For now, I just gotta chill on the sidelines and see if price can manage to edge higher and trigger my orders. To those of you joining me on this trade, good luck!
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