Goodbye Q3 and hello Q4! There’s no better way to usher in the new quarter and bid adieu to the last than by reviewing my trading performance for the last three months!
Q3 2012 Cyclopip Trading Statistics
Total Number of Trades: 14
Breakeven Trades: 3
Cancelled Trades: 3
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 36.36%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.87%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.56%
Largest Drawdown: -1.26%
Total Realized Profit / (Loss) in %: +1.21%
How’s that for consistency? My stats from Q3 2012 look a lot like my stats from Q1 and Q2. Now, I can’t really say if this is a good thing or not, since there are both positive and negative points about this.
My win percentage (36.36% of triggered trades) was just a tad bit lower than what we saw in Q1 and Q2, but it wasn’t really because I had more losing trades this time around. Rather, it was because I had a lot of breakeven trades – I had three in this quarter alone!
But even though I had the same number of winners as losers, I was able to record a 1.21% gain (compounded) because my average winning trade (+0.87%) was larger than my average losing trade (-0.56%) once again. Aww yeah!
Here’s how my account balance fared last quarter:
Looks sort of like a roller coaster ride, doesn’t it?
I actually had a pretty good start to Q3 with a couple of wins in July. But then August came around and I found myself right back where I started. My account even dipped slightly below my starting balance! Luckily, I was able to recover and secure a couple of wins before the quarter came to a close to take my balance back up to positive territory.
Now, let’s take a look at this quarter’s most memorable trades:
There’s actually a looong story behind this quarter’s biggest winner – one that’s five months long! I opened this EUR/CHF trade back in May and held on until it hit my profit target last month.
Even though I didn’t get the best price (I entered at 1.2016, but the market traded at around 1.2010 for months afterwards), I kept this trade open. In my mind I truly felt that it was a high probability trade because I was confident that the SNB would pull through.
It took a while for this pair to get moving, but you know what? It paid off! I guess it’s true what they say… Patience pays – in this case 1.00%!
This was a tough loss to swallow, as not only did I risk more than I normally do, but my fundamental analysis was initially correct. Thanks to Draghi’s comments during the August ECB interest rate decision, AUD/JPY broke lower, triggering my sell order.
However, I pushed my luck too far by keeping my trade open ahead of the NFP report. Once the figures came in way better than anticipated, we saw a risk rally take place, wiping out my trade in the process!
Ironically, this is almost the same thing that happened last quarter, when my fundamental analysis was spot on, but I got blindsided by other data that lit up the markets.
Thoughts on QE3 2012
Missing the Yen cross trend
While I had a decent quarter, I feel like I could have done much better. For one, I completely missed out on the uptrend in yen pairs. Looking at EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, we can see that both pairs rose at least 700 pips from their July lows.
What was I doing when all that was going on?!
In hindsight, I should have anticipated this.
First, the BOJ had long expressed concern about the strength of the yen. Second, I should have seen the willingness of the ECB to cut rates and the BOE to expand its asset purchase program as potential catalysts for a risk rally in the market.
This just goes to show that I have to work on my ability to gauge what the market is feeling, and not just stick to my biases all the time.
Another difficulty that I had this past quarter was gauging how strong moves would be during the summer. There were a couple of trades that were so close to hitting my profit targets, but then price action would reverse. I would either get stopped out at breakeven or worse, price would go all the way in the other direction and hit my stop loss!
I think one reason why I kept on hoping for those big profit targets was because I really focused on getting good reward-to-risk ratios. While there’s nothing wrong with that, I think there will be times that I have to adapt and accept that I won’t always get an awesome RR ratio.
I realize that with many traders off on holiday, sustained moves aren’t quite realistic. Next summer, I’ll try to scale back my expectations and set less ambitious profit targets.
I think if there’s one thing I’ve been doing well so far this year it’s that I’ve been able to instill discipline into my trading routine, and I can thank the Weekly Watch for this. Ever since starting the Weekly Watch late last year, it has become an essential part of my trading process.
By posting the Weekly Watch every Monday, it has become easier for me to recognize which areas could provide a ton of interest and these levels eventually become the basis for my trade ideas. Now, I can’t imagine going through my charts without seeing those familiar lines guiding me along the way!
Over time, I know that this discipline will serve me well and lead to bigger, more consistent profits.
For now, it’s time to take a short break and enjoy my weekend. But first, I just wanna give a heartfelt thank you to everybody on who shared their thoughts, comments, and suggestions on Twitter, Facebook, Google+ and MeetPips.com. I really appreciate it every time you give advice on trade setups or how I could improve my trading
See y’all on the other side of the weekend! Hang tight!