Q1 2012 Trading Performance Review

Looking back, it was a rather crazy time to be trading the cross-currency pairs. It was tough hopping on the short yen bandwagon as I was cautious about buying up higher-yielding currencies in the face of the ongoing European debt crisis. That said, I decided to test my luck on some of the more “exotic” cross pairs, such as EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD.

Here’s an overview of my trading statistics over the past three months:

Q1 2012 Cyclopip Trading Statistics

Total Number of Trade Ideas: 13
Wins: 4
Losses: 6
Breakeven Trades: 0
Cancelled Trades: 3
Win %: 40%
Total Profit / (Loss) in Pips: -70
Total Profit / (Loss) in %: +0.82%
Largest Drawdown: -2.25%

Interestingly, even though my total pip count came in at -70, I was able to churn out a positive figure percentage-wise (+0.82%) in the first quarter. The reason for this was due to my winners generally being larger than my losers, and my losers happened to occur when I scaled down my risk.

Unfortunately, I had a rather rough time in March, as I lost three of my 5 trades, with the other two failing to get triggered. This led to a disappointing drawdown of 2.25%.

Below is a chart of my account balance expressed in percentages:

Chart of Account Balance

Now, let’s do a quick recap of my biggest winner and loser for this quarter!

Biggest Winner

EUR/GBP Chart

To think, I almost missed the bus on this EUR/GBP trade! The pair had been ranging for the longest time and luckily for me, I was able to catch a retest of the .8400 handle. The rest of the trade went as smooth as a baby’s butt, as the euro got slashed and burned on concerns about the Greek bailout.

By the end of the day, I took home a sweet 87 pips! This may not seem like much, but because I had a tight stop and risked a full 1% on this trade, I took home an overall gain of 2.175%!

Biggest Loser

EUR/CAD Chart

I almost tore out my lone horn in excitement when I first spotted this setup on EUR/CAD. Looking back, it turns out that this trade was appropriately named because it did deliver a DOUBLE WHAMMY… not because price bounced off the dual resistance levels that I pointed out, but because the market stopped out both my positions! @#$%! This trade dealt me my biggest loss for the quarter: -1.00%.

My Thoughts for Q1 2012

  1. I can’t help but feel that I missed a lot of great trading opportunities and big moves this quarter because of my aversion to uncertainty. For instance, I found myself steering away from certain currencies (like the yen) because I was unsure how the market would treat it. This led me to miss a few clear-cut, valid trades that turned out to be big winners.

    But truth be told, nothing is ever certain in trading. Every trade involves risk! I think that in the future, I should work on my aversion to uncertainty and assess trades as objectively and analytically as possible. Why should I shy away from a certain currency if the setup is valid and the rewards outweigh the risks? Besides, I can always adjust my risk exposure to reflect greater uncertainty!

  2. Speaking of risk management, on a more positive note, I think that I did a good job with risk management this quarter by minimizing my risk on certain trades. For the most part, I won trades where I risked my max (1.00%), and except for ONE instance (see Biggest Loser above), most of my losses were limited to those trades where I cut back my risk.

    You can’t go wrong with big winners and small losers!

  3. Lastly, I really like the newest addition to my trading routine – the Weekly Watch. I think it has helped a lot with my trading because it imprints must-watch levels right into my brain very early into the week. I find that I have much more time to actually analyze recent price action with this new pre-trading exercise. I hope it has helped you guys with your trading as well!

Before we kick-start another quarter, I’d like to thank you, my dear friends, for following me and sticking with me through thick and thin. I’m hoping that by working together and keeping open lines of communication, we can achieve the ultimate goal of becoming consistently profitable traders!

If you have any comments or suggestions that you’d like to make regarding my trading or my blog, please feel free to share them below. Peace out homies and enjoy the Easter break!

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