Jumping in Short on EUR/AUD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2012-12-03 23:30

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

Yep, that chart above pretty much says it all. The joy I felt after seeing the daily candlestick close in the red on the first day after entering my short position was extremely short-lived!

In just a span of three days, I went from being up 30 pips to down a hundred. Before I knew it, price was back above the 38.2% Fib, on its way to stopping me out. What. A. Bummer.

The euro was an absolute beast on the charts towards the end of last week, as the markets focused on Germany’s approval of the Greek bailout deal. On the other hand, the Aussie was crippled in recent days because the markets had been anticipating a rate cut from the RBA… and as it turns out, they were right!

The RBA delivered a rate cut earlier today, but surprisingly, the Aussie rallied at the announcement of lower interest rates. This suggests that the markets had already priced in the cut from 3.25% to 3.00%.

Stopped out at 1.2473: -100 pips / -0.50%

That’s that for this trade. It’s a pity I had missed so many good trades in the past, but I’m not gonna let this trade get me down. After all, thanks to proper risk management, I only lost 0.50% of my account, which is quite tiny when you think about it. I’mma keep my chin up and I’mma try my best to end this year on a positive note!

Thanks for following, guys! I’ll catch ya’ll again soon!

Trade Idea: 2012-11-28 00:01

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

After FOUR weeks of not getting triggered, I’ve had enough of this nonsense! Luckily for me, this setup on EUR/AUD lines up nicely like a Steve Novak three-pointer! Ain’t it a beauty?!

After retracing last week, EUR/AUD has been finding tough resistance at the 38.2% Fib. Just take a look at all those dojis that formed! Furthermore, Stochastic just crossed over in overbought territory, indicating that we may soon see a period of selling!

On the fundamental side of things, I think we’re seeing risk aversion creep back into the markets, as the Greek debt deal didn’t exactly spark any real optimism. There’s still a whole lot of details that need to be ironed out, and government officials still have to approve of the austerity measures. Couple this with the lack of any progress with regards to the U.S. fiscal cliff, and I think higher-yielding currencies could be in for some pain over the next week.

The key of course, is picking which non-safe haven to go with. At this point, I’d rather put my money on the Australian dollar (which has remained afloat throughout the past few months) than the euro (which has been trading to the whims of the market).

Sold EUR/AUD at 1.2373, stop loss at 1.2473, profit target at 1.2200.

Anyway, I jumped in at market at 1.2473 and am going with a 100-pip stop. I think this should give my trade enough breathing room to withstand volatility. I’m ultimately targeting 1.2200, which is just below the recent swing low. As usual, I’ll be risking 0.50% of my account on this trade.

If you guys have any comments and suggestions on how I can manage this trade, feel free to hit me up in the comment box below!

Risk Disclosure
Q3 2012 Trading Performance Review
Weekly Watch: November 26 to 30, 2012
Read about my trading framework
Follow me on MeetPips.com
Follow me on Twitter
Like my Facebook page
Join my circle on Google+

  • mo’pips

    Actually the 145 HR SSI shows Majority long on this pair, which means a possible short opportuniy. I like the call Cyclopip.

  • Bijoymj

    I am already short from 1.2400. Trade Idea posted in babypips thread at link to forums.babypips.com

    • cyclopip

      Wow! Wish I had spotted this sooner. That was an almost perfect entry! Looks like you’re up about 40 pips now. Hope the market keeps moving in our direction!

  • Diana

    I am monitoring this pair too.. I am sitting on my hands at the moment. Just curious..the fallen trendline has been broken to the upside, are you not concern?

    • Chuka Madu

      you re right. and there are many more reasons to shun the bear party boys.

    • cyclopip

      Yeah, that broken trend line does worry me a bit, but I’m comfortable with holding this trade open for a while because the markets don’t appear to be too impressed with the fact that a Greek debt deal has been made. The upside to the euro seems limited at the moment. Just my two cents. :)

      • Chuka Madu

        This pair has relatively been at one price whole week despite the doomsday being pronounced. The Daily is surely bullish and has established a floor. So also the weekly with a nice inverse H&S not to talk of the obvious weekly morning star program in place. There are hundred and one valid reasons to be long this pair instead of short. But hey, if there are no sellers, buyers won’t make money and if there are no buyers, sellers won’t. Pls hold your position! lol I will be on the long side. See ya

  • Chuka Madu

    I like the fact the majority is short this pair. I went long 1.2389 and added my second 1.2359. stop 1.2297 (will adjust higher once pair settles above 1.2400) Targeting 1.2500-1.2800
    Definitely a wrong pair to short at this time.