Hopping on the GBP/JPY Uptrend – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2012-04-03 03:42

GBP/JPY 1-hour Chart

After almost missing out on my entry, I finally got triggered late last Wednesday as the pound dropped on worse-than-expected GDP figures. Even though my trade was wavering back and forth between being in and out of the money, the Fibs and the trend line were holding nicely and I was fairly confident that things would work out.

Apparently the market didn’t agree with me. Risk aversion continued to dominate the market on Thursday, and I eventually got stopped out.

What’s worse is that risk sentiment eventually picked up, with higher-yielding currencies trampling all over the yen. As a matter of fact, GBP/JPY eventually hit my profit target at 133.00 earlier this week! Drats!

Stopped out at 130.40 : -110 pips / -0.50%

I can’t help but feel a little disappointed on this trade. After all, who wouldn’t be after seeing your trade get stopped out only to see it hit your profit target later on?!

In hindsight though, I can’t say that my loss was just because of “bad luck.” I had thought that the trend line would hold but instead we’re starting to see the pair stick within a range. I was wrong and at the end of the day, I can live with that because I only risked 0.50% of my account on the trade.

Now that the first quarter is done, I think it’s about time to review my trading performance for the past three months. I’ll be sending out my quarterly review tomorrow, so check back in soon!

Trade Idea: 2012-03-28 02:12

GBP/JPY 1-hour Chart

There’s no denying it folks – yen crosses have been on an uptrend! If you scroll back to the beginning of the year, you’ll notice that GBP/JPY has risen about 1,500 pips from its lows! Whoa!

Where was I when all that happened?!

The good news is that I think I’ve finally found a way to get in!

After finding resistance at 133.00, GBP/JPY appears to be retracing again and I think a good entry area to go long will be around 131.50. Not only is this right between the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels and just above the long-term rising trend line (best seen on the 4-hour time frame), but it was also a major area of interest in the past two weeks. I suspect the bulls may be looking at that area to re-establish their long positions.

Looking across the charts, I can tell the yen has been pretty weak. I think I’d be a fool to not at least try and hop on this trend! It’s like the latest news about Magic Johnson and the Dodgers – you can’t pass up a good opportunity when it comes by!

For today, we’ve got current account and final GDP figures from the U.K. on tap. I’m hoping that these reports help provide some volatility to help my trade get triggered. Aside from those reports, I’m gonna be keeping an eye out for any shifts in risk sentiment as this could play a deciding factor as to whether or not GBP/JPY will continue to rise.

Here’s what I plan to do:

Long GBP/JPY at 131.50, stop loss at 130.40, take profit at 133.00.

I put my stop loss just below the WO and this week’s lows. I figured if price reaches that low, the trend line will be broken and its time to shift gears. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the recent high at 133.00, as this seems to be a stubborn resistance point. This should give me a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 1.36:1.

Speaking of risk, I’m gonna be scaling down my exposure on this trade and will only be risking 0.50% of my account on this trade.

Do you guys agree with my trade analysis? Lemme know by hitting the comments section down below!

Weekly Watch: March 26 to 30, 2012
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  • Rajni

    Hi,
    Is it a double top in 4hr tf.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Rajni

    • cyclopip

      It might be. I think we’ll have to see it break below 130.00 before we can truly say that it was a double top. 

      • Rajni

        Thanks for your reply.
        Have a nice day..

  • ケーちゃん

    Nice rally before NY closing. Let’s hope next week still continuing.

  • Mcaochuka

    yes. I agree with long.

    • cyclopip

      It’s starting to look like a range. I wonder how it will react on another test of the 133.30 area!