Got My Eye on a EUR/JPY Long-term Falling Trend Line – Orders Cancelled

Orders Cancelled: 2012-01-31 01:15

Since I placed my sell order, EUR/JPY has fallen about 200 pips, just as I had hoped! There’s just one little problem…


…my orders never triggered!

You read that right, my sell order at 102.30 was just out of reach as EUR/JPY decided to turn around at 102.22! @#$%^!

During this time, the yen was simply beastin’ across the boards, and it just so happened that the euro was beginning to show signs of weakness as well. Yesterday saw the pair’s biggest decline. Apparently, the markets didn’t like the fact that Greece still hasn’t reached an agreement with its creditors and that no major resolutions were made at the EU summit.

All of this worked highly in favor of EUR/JPY bears and led to a 120-pip loss on the day!

Though I believe EUR/JPY may present more shorting opportunities down the line, I think it’s time to close my orders for this trade. Price is simply too far from my desired entry point at the moment. But I’ll be keeping my eye on this pair over the coming days, that’s for sure!

Thanks for following, fellas!

Trade Idea: 2012-01-26 02:22

Even though I got burned the past two weeks shorting the euro, I still think we’re about to see EUR/JPY take a drop soon. This time, I zoomed out a bit and made use of multiple time frame analysis to help me make a decision!

First up, I wanna show you a long-term falling trend line on the daily chart of EUR/JPY:

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

As you can see, EUR/JPY is fast approaching the trend line. Stochastic is also in overbought territory and huge bearish divergence has formed, which could signal a continuation of the long-term downtrend.

Now, let’s zoom in a bit and check out what’s happening on the 4-hour chart:

EUR/JPY 4-hour Chart

Using the fabulous Fibonacci tool, I see that price is also approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which just happens to lineup closely with the long-term falling trend line!

Fundamentally, I’m still in the short euro camp, at least for the medium term. Private bondholders and the Greek government have yet to come an agreement, and with the next proposal scheduled to be submitted sometime around February 13, I think the tension could weigh heavily on the euro’s prospects over the next couple of weeks.

In addition, I think part of EUR/JPY’s recent gains can be attributed to dollar and yen weakness. If you take a look at some of the other cross pairs, like EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD, the euro hasn’t been able to dominate like he’s a Manning brother.

Here’s my game plan:

Short EUR/JPY at 102.30, stop loss at 103.60, take profit at 99.00.

I’m looking to short just below the Fib level, at around 102.30. This also served as a resistance point in the past, so I expect some selling pressure there. I’ve put my stop at ½ the weekly ATR (260 pips), which should give my trade enough room to breathe.

For my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the previous low, around 99.00. In the past, I probably would have set my target at around 97.00, but I think it would be better to have a more conservative approach, given how wildly EUR/JPY has been trading.

As for economic data coming out next week, I’ll have to keep an eye out for euro zone retail sales and CPI figures.

Who’s willing to join me on this trade? Let me know what you think by hitting up the comments below!

  • MaxV

    do you mean short at 102.30?

    • cyclopip

      Thanks for pointing that out, mate! Yes, I do mean 102.30. 🙂

      • Jj_likes_4ndz

        Euro Bulls are really strong enough yet.I think that your Technical analysis is very good but it needs a heavy support from fundamentals.

  • Divergence

    The bearish divergence seems to break your divergence rules in school of pipsology. Both heads must be above the 80 Stoch.

  • fedegmail

    Great! I don’t usually trade this pair, but I think you’re right, then I’ll follow you 😉

  • Ian J

    I’m down with this one. Lets make some Pips!

  • Mcaochuka

    Divergences get broken too. I think Eurjpy is in the hands of the bulls medium term looking all the way up to 105. 50 core Resistance and I will be buying with that in mind. That is the price I believe selling would become more appropriate. Good luck if you insist on selling at 102

  • Brendan Giles

    There is a lot of sentiment building in Japan in favor of another intervention. Personally I won’t be going short while the USD/JPY is near record lows.

    • cyclopip

      I agree.

      The big drop we saw in USD/JPY yesterday certainly puts the yen back on intervention alert. A three-month low, was it? Might be best to wait for things to settle before buying the yen again.

      Thanks for dropping by, Brendan!