Flipping Sides on AUD/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2013-03-05 2:55

AUD/JPY Chart

Talk about a close call! If I hadn’t closed my trade early ahead of the weekend, I would be staring at a loss right now! Instead, I actually picked up a few pips for my troubles.

I decided midway through the London session last Friday to close my trade in order to avoid any event risk. With the sequester about to kick in in the U.S. I thought we may see some volatility in the markets and it just wasn’t worth holding on.

Closed trade manually at 94.69: +20 pips / +.13%

I’ll admit I got a little bit lucky on this trade. If I had just waited a couple of hours or so, my stop loss would have gotten hit by that sudden spike in AUD/JPY.

Overall, I’m still a little bearish on the Australian dollar, so if this pair manages to rally higher to test the 61.8% Fib / 96.00 confluence zone, it might be worth a shot.

Hope you guys didn’t get caught by that late Friday move! Good luck trading the rest of the week, homies!

Trade Idea: 2013-02-28 01:20

Some things just make sense. Peanut butter and jelly, steaks and beer, rabbit ears and gravy, and this trade on AUD/JPY.

AUD/JPY Chart

Fundamentally speaking, there’s a lot weighing down the Aussie. Early next week, we have the RBA rate statement, and word on the street is that there’s a chance the central bank could cut interest rates. It’s kind of hard imagining the Aussie gaining much ground in the coming days with that sort of outlook bearing down on the currency.

Also, we just got word that there was a surprise drop in business investment last quarter, largely because mining companies cut back on spending. With the mining industry peaking, there has become a pressing need for other sectors to shoulder overall economic growth. Again, another reason for the RBA to keep things dovish next week.

As for technicals, we see that AUD/JPY is right smack in the middle of the 38.3%-50.0% correction zone, which is no stranger to reversals. With a bearish divergence already in the cards, I didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger and sell at market:

Sold AUD/JPY at market (94.89), stop loss at 95.69, profit target at 93.20.

I set my stop just above the support/resistance kill zone, and I’m aiming for the previous low. If everything goes according to plan, I should bag over 1% with a return on risk of over 2:1.

What do you think of this trade? Anyone else out there shorting a yen cross? Hit me up with your thoughts and comments below!


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  • Pranav

    Dude , i placed the same trade and am now in a loss of 500$ 🙁 …
    Its now at 95.5 … my loss is 500$ ( as of now , havet closed the trades )
    Man , this logic dint work out ..Will wait and see if i can make up this loss

    If i succeed , i ll try to be better and if i lose .. i ll try to wrk harder to correct my mistakes

    BTW, have u closed ur position ?

    • cyclopip

      Hey bud! Sorry to hear about your loss. You’ll get ‘me next time! As for me, I closed at a tiny profit towards the middle of the London session when price was still consolidating. i wasn’t comfortable holding the trade for much longer because I’m not a fan of leaving trades open over the weekend (risky business, just look at last week’s gap). I’ll give you guys a full update next week!

      • Pranav

        Hey .. thats fine man .. I will try to cover up this loss tomorrow if AUD weakens … Anyway have placed other trades to balance off this one 🙂 …..

      • Fitz

        I should have followed my instincts and closed the trade as well. I must have missed your tweet about it. If I saw it, I would have closed it also.

        Anyway, the trade’s still open on my end, hope it will not hit my stop until the RBA statement, and price to eventually head down after that.

      • Pranav

        Dude … i held this position overnight and dint close… 500$ loss turned into profit 🙂 as assuie lost to yen and dollar today …..