Trade Update: 2012-02-07 02:26

It's been almost a week since I bought EUR/CHF, and though the pair hasn't really moved much since then (it's only up about 30 pips since I bought it), at least it's been a headache-free ride!

If you take a peek at the charts, I think I was actually able to catch a bottom on this one! What luck!

R-E-S-P-E-C-T is what the market has been showing the SNB! I guess traders didn't take the central bank's jawboning and promises of defending 1.2000 lightly, as they've been very cautious about letting the pair fall towards this line-in-the-sand level. They've been so cautious, in fact, that EUR/CHF has actually started to drift higher, forming a sweet little uptrend in the process!

I'm not really expecting too much action in the coming days, but I do believe that this trade is a keeper, so I'm willing to keep it open for a while longer.

Another reason why I'm letting this trade ride is that I'm interested to see how SNB Governing Board Interim Chairman Thomas Jordan's speech will affect Swissy price action later today (10:45 am GMT). I have a feeling he'll have a thing or two to say about the SNB's commitment to defending its peg, and I think that could ultimately work in my favor.

So for now, I'mma sit on the sidelines and give this baby room to breathe. Hopefully, it'll keep sailing smoothly up the charts.

Thanks for following, fellas! I'll keep you all posted!

Trade Idea: 2012-01-31 23:17

Back in early September, our buddies over at the SNB declared that they were pegging the franc to the euro at 1.2000. Five months later, EUR/CHF is now approaching that key level. Given the SNB's history of following through, I think this could be a good trade opportunity for me!

As you can see, EUR/CHF has been steadily crawling lower over the past few weeks, making its way back to the floor at 1.2000. The question is, will the SNB hold true to its promise, or will it let EUR/CHF slide below that level?

Remember, former SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is out of the picture, as he and his wife were involved with an insider trading scandal. Mrs. Hildebrand bought some dollars just before the SNB intervened in the markets. Apparently, she forgot that her hubby was the HEAD of the central bank. Oops.

In any case, Hildebrand is out and now we've got Thomas Jordan (no relation to Air Jordan) as the interim head honcho of the SNB.

Now, I've heard some rumors that Jordan may soon be named as the permanent SNB President either this week or next week. Of more importance though, is that Jordan is expected to maintain the same monetary policy strategy as Hildebrand.

I wouldn't be surprised if at his introductory statement, Jordan goes all-out and does some jawboning right then and there! Remember, the SNB even said it was thinking of setting the floor at 1.2500 instead!

With that in mind, I'm willing to bet (1% of my account) that the SNB will NOT allow EUR/CHF to dip too far below 1.2000.

Here's what I'm doing:

Buy EUR/CHF at market (1.2037), stop loss at 1.1937, take profit at 1.2400.

I decided to buy now, as I'm not so sure if we'll see the pair test the 1.2000 handle because I expect other traders to have interest at the current price as well. It may take a while before we see any action on this trade, but just like in football, I'm willing to grind this one out. Who knows - maybe Jordan will throw a Hail Mary and send this pair flying!