Double Whammy Resistance on EUR/CAD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 12-03-29 00:18

EUR/CAD 4-hour Chart

Looks like this cat only had two lives! After narrowly escaping a loss last Friday, my trade finally died yesterday. Bummer, dude.

The euro turned out to be one of the most resilient currencies yesterday as word got around that European officials are planning to put up a larger firewall to protect against debt contagion. They say that proposal drafts are already being made to bring the European financial firewall to 940 billion EUR!

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was treated like a chump as it weakened amidst a big drop in oil prices. As it turns out, the U.S., which happens to be Canada’s biggest market for oil, saw an increase in oil inventories to the tune of 7.1 million barrels in the week ending March 23. Looks like the U.S.’s oil supply is good for now!

Anyway, it all made for a bad combination for my trade and the market ended up breaking past the 1.3250 mark to stop me out at 1.3290.

1st position stopped out at 1.3290: -100 pips / -0.50%
2nd position stopped out at 1.3290: -55 pips / -0.50%

Though this trade didn’t turn out the way I wanted it to, I ain’t gonna let it rustle my jimmies. You can’t keep a good Cyclops down! Besides, I still have that GBP/JPY trade to look forward to!

Thanks for following guys, and may the pips be with you!

Trade Update: 12-03-27 04:45

EUR/CAD 4-hour Chart

The chart above pretty much sums up the story for this trade the past few days. Even though Canadian core CPI came in higher than expected, the euro was still able to outperform the Loonie, thanks to a pullback in bond yields. So not long after my first position was triggered, EUR/CAD spiked past 1.3250 and triggered my second position.

To be honest, I thought my trade was done for because price came within a pip of hitting my stop loss! But with luck (a lot of it!), the market turned and fell back below the 1.3250 support level, which is still holding as of now.

So there you have it, folks! I’ve got a full 1% of my account on the line now, and I’m praying this resistance zone will continue to hold up. Hopefully, we’ll see a rally in oil prices that’ll help give the Loonie a boost.

Peace out and thanks for following, homeboys!

Trade Update: 12-03-23 00:06

EUR/CAD 4-hour Chart

We saw some crazy moves yesterday, as risk aversion stemming from poor data all over the world took over. For a while, it looked like EUR/CAD was heading south and I wasn’t gonna get triggered. Fortunately for me though, Canadian retails sales came out and busted up the Loonie!

Headline retail sales growth dropped to just 0.5% last January, after it was expected to show an increase of 1.8%. And in an even bigger stunner than Peyton Manning’s decision to join the Broncos, core retail sales dropped by 0.5%, which was the complete opposite of the anticipated 0.5% uptick!

This sent EUR/CAD flying sky high like a jet! Speaking of jets, I can’t wait to see Tebow in New York! Tebowmania and Linsanity in the same city? That’s just cray!

In any case, my first position at 1.3190 got triggered. Stochastic just hit overbought territory though, so I’m expecting the buying pressure to die down soon. For now, I’ll be keeping my orders open over the weekend!

Good luck to those of you who joined me on this trade! I’ll see y’all on Monday!

Trade Idea: 2012-03-21 00:30

EUR/CAD1-hour Chart

The yen crosses have been on a rampage the past couple of weeks and the market doesn’t seem to be giving any clues as to when the rally will end or whether we’ll even see a pullback. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is now in the middle of its long-term range after bouncing right off support at .8290. So what’s a cross-currency lovin’ Cyclops to do but to turn to less popular crosses? Enter EUR/CAD!

Take one look at the technical setup on this bad boy and you’ll see why I decided to pick this pair. After bouncing off the 1.2900 MaPs, price has been on a one-way road up the charts with no big retracements whatsoever. Methinks it’s due for a pullback or reversal, and the area between 1.3200 and 1.3250 looks like a prime spot for it to turn around!

In the past, 1.3200 and 1.3250 were strong resistance levels, and now, they also line up really well with the Fibs and the top WATR.

With no new major themes directing market action and with the European debt crisis exiting the spotlight, I think it’s unlikely that EUR/CAD will blast above this major resistance zone. It’ll need a major catalyst to pull that off! Plus, oil prices have been holding steady above 100 and I think that should provide some sort of support for the Canadian dollar in the long run.

So here’s how I set up my orders:

Short EUR/CAD at 1.3190, stop loss at 1.3290, profit target at 1.3000.
Short EUR/CAD at 1.3235, stop loss at 1.3290, profit target at 1.3000.

I’m risking 0.5% on each of these positions, which means I’m putting a total of 1% of my account on the line.

So what do you guys think of my trade idea? Hit me up with some comments below!

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  • Martinpphillips

    Bang on here this is my kind of trade 1% Risk for the two trades makes absolute sense it is a good Risk To Reward

    • cyclopip

      Thanks Martin! Now if only our orders would get triggered. Haha. But I’m liking action on EUR/CAD at the moment, only about 50 pips away from my first entry point.

  • Granticus_Maximus

    Speaking of Yen volatility… I have a fibo drawn from the previous downslide on the daily chart. It shot right through the 50% fibonacci level at around 110 and just shot right down… Eipc.

  • richhand

    why would you not put your SL above the round number?

  • cyclopip

    Just a quick update: both positions are now open and the trade is still alive… for now! Price is currently hanging right at the resistance zone. Came very very very very close to stopping out on Friday, but the high fell a pip short of my stop loss. Will post a more detailed update soon!

  • ovibi

    Wow !! almost hit your SL twice ! move it 

  • Phil fx

    Not looking good at all!!!

  • Phil fx

    broke thru ur 1.3290sl level…

    • cyclopip

      Yeah I just stopped out. Looks like the euro is just too resilient right now! Sucks, I thought it would continue to drop once it fell below 1.3200!

  • ovibi

    It has some daily resistance too..  maybe it will not pass 1.330~

  • ViciousP

    In my experiences, the main fib mark to target is in between the 61 and the 79 lines.  I couldn’t imagine putting a stop right above the 61, the price too often falls into that 61-79 zone somewhere before reversing.  Bump your trigger and your SL up to those levels next time and see what happens.  I think you’ll be happy.