Close Open Orders: 2008-04-30 10:45
Well, it looks like another case of “right on the analysis, but wrong on the entry” as our short position missed being trigger by about 10 pips. After briefly hitting just below .7950, to pair found enough sellers to push the pair back below .7900 to its current level around .7860.
So, we missed the trade and with the Fed interest rate decision coming up soon, I’d like to close all open orders. No trade.
Trade Idea: 2008-04-29 21:31
It looks like a EUR/GBP short may be back in play as the pair rallied today on weak UK data. Is this another opportunity to short?
We have a simple chart setup with a downward trendline connecting the recent peaks and a Fibonacci retracement tool drawn on the recent swing from .8040 to .7840. Stochastics are showing the pair may be overbought in the short term. A rise to the 61% Fibonacci level may bring in selling interest as it intersects with the downtrend line.
Data has been weak as of late, indicating that economic distress may finally be reaching the Eurozone and with the Euro considered to be the most overvalued at the moment, it has the most to lose if focus shifts from inflation to economic growth.
The major economic event to watch out for tomorrow is the UK nationwide House Prices number. We may possibly see another weak housing number which may bring the pair up to the trendline and 61% Fib area. If so, I look to short then…..
Short EUR/GBP at .7960, stop at .8010, pt1 at .7910, pt2 at .7840
Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.