Cross-Eyeing: EUR/CHF – Close Open Orders

Close Open Orders: 2008-10-27 11:00

I am closing my open orders to short EUR/CHF at 1.51 as the pair found enough sellers at 1.50 to push it down to new lows.

Close open entry orders. No trade.

So, the sentiment is still there for more deleveraging, but I just missed the entry by a few pips.

For this week, I think we will see more selling out of carry trades, but the feel is it won’t be as violent as the past couple of months. Are we at the bottom? Maybe, maybe not…who knows? For now, I will continue to play along with the momentum, but I will continue to play cautiously. This means lower risk tolerance and wider stops. So, I will continue to look for selling opportunities…Stay tuned!

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Trade Idea: 2008-10-23 18:39

crosseyed chart

Hello! The last few days we have seen hardcore, carry trade selling on risk aversion, de-leveraging, and global recession fears. This includes EUR/CHF and today’s rally could be another opportunity to jump into the market fears and hopefully continue the ride lower.

I’m using the usual technical setup to find an entry point. I’ve drawn a Fibonacci retracement tool and I like the 50% to 61% retracement areas to jump in short. I think we may see a bit more correction to the upside as stochastics are just coming out of oversold territory.

Sentiment is still pushing the longer term trend lower, but as the credit market unfreezes, fear of armageddon has begun to dissipate. Focus is now shifting to recession, and speculation is that the Eurozone will get hit especially hard. The markets are already pricing in more rate cuts from the ECB well into 2009.

So, I’d like to go short again. I’ll probably scale into the different Fib levels, but for the purpose of keeping this blog simple, here’s a simple trade idea of what I’m gonna do.

Short EUR/CHF at 1.5100, stop at 1.5250, pt1 at 1.5000, pt2 at 1.4600

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

If the trade is entered and the first profit target is hit, I will trail my stop by 100 pips. Stay tuned for updates!

  • Avion

    Hi, very nice trade. I was just wondering about risk reward ratio, and if i am right yours on this trade was less then 1:1. Dont mean nothing bad, but how does this work on longer term?

    Best regards
    (newbie)

  • Avion

    Hi, very nice trade. I was just wondering about risk reward ratio, and if i am right yours on this trade was less then 1:1. Dont mean nothing bad, but how does this work on longer term?

    Best regards
    (newbie)

  • cyclopip

    My risk was 150 pips on each half of my position, and when you take 100 pip profit on the first half, and 500 pips on the second half, that’s a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio which works out pretty good in the long term. Unfortunately, I wasn’t in this trade as my entry orders at 1.51 weren’t triggered. Would’ve been nice though as the pair hit just 1.45. Oh well, gotta adjust and move on. Hope this helps!

  • cyclopip

    My risk was 150 pips on each half of my position, and when you take 100 pip profit on the first half, and 500 pips on the second half, that’s a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio which works out pretty good in the long term. Unfortunately, I wasn’t in this trade as my entry orders at 1.51 weren’t triggered. Would’ve been nice though as the pair hit just 1.45. Oh well, gotta adjust and move on. Hope this helps!