Cross-Eyeing EUR/CHF – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-05-23 12:11

Our first profit target was hit yesterday, where we closed half of our position and moved our stop to break even on our remaining position. We did not get to see a follow through of the rally as sellers were waiting to jump in around 1.6250 and push the pair back to our stop out level. Our remaining position was closed at break even.

1st half: +50 pips
2nd half: +00 pips
Total: +0.50% gain

So, we got a bit of profit to close out the weekend. Congrats to those who did well on this trade and have a wonderful weekend!

Trade Update: 2008-05-22 08:45

Our position was entered to go long at 1.6185 yesterday, and it seems support at 1.6180 has held through our today’s Asian and European trading session. EU data has been supportive of our position as the latest German Ifo data surprising to the upside.

So, it looks good for now, but my current concern is if the return to risk aversion and USD weakness will drag our trade down with it? We’ll just have to wait and see. For now we will hold onto our position, and with the pair currently trading around 1.6215, we are about 20 pips from our first take profit. Don’t forget to adjust your trade if we do hit 1.6235.

Stay tuned and good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-05-20 16:19

crosseyed chart

Good afternoon! The recent risk aversion may bring us an opportunity to catch the longer term uptrend in EUR/CHF. Eurozone data has been positive for the Euro with PPI and ZEW economic data supporting the ECB’s hawkish stance on rates, so the Euro rally may continue.

On the chart, we are using a Fibonacci tool, and with momentum currently on the downside on risk aversion, we will use the 61.8% Fibonacci level for our entry as I think traders are currently eyeing that area for support. Also, stochastics are showing the pair may be near term oversold and the momentum may be running out of steam.

We do have event risk tomorrow with the German IFO Business sentiment data expected to move the Euro around if we see data a deviation from expectations of around 102.1. Please be cautious around this event.

Long EUR/CHF at 1.6185, stop at 1.6135, pt1 at 1.6235, pt2 at 1.6300

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned, good luck and good trading!

20 comments

  1. RomanDG

    Hi,
    great setups! I’m passing by every day, please go on, you help improving my trading with every post!

    king regards,
    roman

    Reply
  2. Piphacker

    Hi this seem’s to me great trade call… Personally i was waiting for the break of 1.6240 Level & seems if Euro/Chf successfully managed to break it than i was thinking to go Long Also but today lot of Important fundamental’s are about to come let’s see …But seems your this trade call is gr8…
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  3. Piphacker

    So Far it Look’s good to me But as i said that 1.6225 to 1.6240 Is a good resistance level & it must have to break but now just couple of Usd important fundamental’s are about to come let’s see But so far this trade look’s good to me … GoodLuck for all who have entered on this Long!!!
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  4. demontez

    Piphacker,
    i love your analysis.Also i feel very sketchy about this trade as it has to break the 38% retracement level of 1.6250 before i am confident it is a breakthrough. Also as fundamentals will have it, it does not look good on the US economy which might be a big booster. But as i said Cyclopip is the man, Follow his ways and you can’t go wrong. Maybe once or twice he predictions have not come true but he is the “man of forex”. I am in Long on this trade. Infact i short the trade going down to the 1.6185 level for 1.6235 yesterday for a good 48pips.Good luck to everyone

    Reply
  5. RomanDG

    Hi,
    great setups! I’m passing by every day, please go on, you help improving my trading with every post!

    king regards,
    roman

    Reply
  6. Piphacker

    Hi this seem’s to me great trade call… Personally i was waiting for the break of 1.6240 Level & seems if Euro/Chf successfully managed to break it than i was thinking to go Long Also but today lot of Important fundamental’s are about to come let’s see …But seems your this trade call is gr8…
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  7. Piphacker

    So Far it Look’s good to me But as i said that 1.6225 to 1.6240 Is a good resistance level & it must have to break but now just couple of Usd important fundamental’s are about to come let’s see But so far this trade look’s good to me … GoodLuck for all who have entered on this Long!!!
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  8. demontez

    Piphacker,
    i love your analysis.Also i feel very sketchy about this trade as it has to break the 38% retracement level of 1.6250 before i am confident it is a breakthrough. Also as fundamentals will have it, it does not look good on the US economy which might be a big booster. But as i said Cyclopip is the man, Follow his ways and you can’t go wrong. Maybe once or twice he predictions have not come true but he is the “man of forex”. I am in Long on this trade. Infact i short the trade going down to the 1.6185 level for 1.6235 yesterday for a good 48pips.Good luck to everyone

    Reply
  9. SittingBull

    A trend line with april 10, april 15, may 9 bottoms, on 3 hour view is broken, possible trend change, the daily stochastics is trending down. The long was a good idea, because the main trend is up, but the broke of the trendline is not a good sign for longs, I think.

    Reply
  10. demontez

    This is very true sittingbull, that is why i closed my trade yesterday at the 38% retracement level of 1.6250 . So far only the first profit target has been hit.

    Reply
  11. Piphacker

    Yea Guy’s No doubt it was a very good trade i was also expecting for more bullsih Pip’s as it breaks the resistance level but in closing session also look at your four hour Euro/Chf chart …you will notice that the candle formed a reversal hammer shape at the end & closed at 1.6213 …Though it break the resistance level but the power of reversal hammer turn’s the condition in bearish favour throughout the day today… Anyhow cong. All who have locked some very good Pip’s!!!

    Reply
  12. Piphacker

    Yea Guy’s No doubt it was a very good trade i was also expecting for more bullsih Pip’s as it breaks the resistance level but in closing session also look at your four hour Euro/Chf chart …you will notice that the candle formed a reversal hammer shape at the end & closed at 1.6213 …Though it break the resistance level but the power of reversal hammer turn’s the condition in bearish favour throughout the day today… Anyhow cong. All who have locked some very good Pip’s!!!

    Reply
  13. SittingBull

    A trend line with april 10, april 15, may 9 bottoms, on 3 hour view is broken, possible trend change, the daily stochastics is trending down. The long was a good idea, because the main trend is up, but the broke of the trendline is not a good sign for longs, I think.

    Reply
  14. demontez

    cyclopip,
    Thanks for this trade. I had a close look at this trade and followed it to the 38% retracement level, unfortunately it did not go pass it so i knew it was time to close out the position. I still think it is going to hit the 1.6072 which is the 100% retracement level before it makes a come back.
    But you are the master!!!

    Reply
  15. demontez

    This is very true sittingbull, that is why i closed my trade yesterday at the 38% retracement level of 1.6250 . So far only the first profit target has been hit.

    Reply
  16. Piphacker

    Yea Guy’s No doubt it was a very good trade i was also expecting for more bullsih Pip’s as it breaks the resistance level but in closing session also look at your four hour Euro/Chf chart …you will notice that the candle formed a reversal hammer shape at the end & closed at 1.6213 …Though it break the resistance level but the power of reversal hammer turn’s the condition in bearish favour throughout the day today… Anyhow cong. All who have locked some very good Pip’s!!!

    Reply
  17. Piphacker

    Yea Guy’s No doubt it was a very good trade i was also expecting for more bullsih Pip’s as it breaks the resistance level but in closing session also look at your four hour Euro/Chf chart …you will notice that the candle formed a reversal hammer shape at the end & closed at 1.6213 …Though it break the resistance level but the power of reversal hammer turn’s the condition in bearish favour throughout the day today… Anyhow cong. All who have locked some very good Pip’s!!!

    Reply
  18. demontez

    cyclopip,
    Thanks for this trade. I had a close look at this trade and followed it to the 38% retracement level, unfortunately it did not go pass it so i knew it was time to close out the position. I still think it is going to hit the 1.6072 which is the 100% retracement level before it makes a come back.
    But you are the master!!!

    Reply
  19. cyclopipcyclopip

    thanks for the comments everyone! Looks like risk aversion is back, especially with equities taking a pounding…I don’t see any reason why this won’t continue for now, so I’ll probably look to short on rallies from here on out… stay tuned!

    Reply
  20. cyclopipcyclopip

    thanks for the comments everyone! Looks like risk aversion is back, especially with equities taking a pounding…I don’t see any reason why this won’t continue for now, so I’ll probably look to short on rallies from here on out… stay tuned!

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>