Close Open Orders: 2008-02-07 10:58
Well, we were right on our bearish bias, but EUR/CHF did not move higher to give us a better price to jump into. With the pair currently testing 1.60, 150 pips away from our short level, we will close open orders and look for a better opportunity to catch this trend.
Close all open orders. No trade.
The ECB did hold rates as expected at 4.00% while the BOE cut rates to 5.25%. This may prove to be an opportunity to check out EUR/GBP, so stay tuned for a new trade idea very soon!
On a side note, some of our bloggers have been out for a bit, but they will be back very soon!! Look for normal blogging to resume next week!
Trade Idea: 2008-02-06 10:56
Recent Eurozone data has been a little bit weak this week and I think with risk aversion starting to price into markets, the ECB may have to take another look at their stance on interest rates.
Eurozone retail sales and PMI data both came in weaker than expected, and it appears the fears of slow growth in the US will still affect the rest of the world. Trichet and the rest of the ECB crew may have no choice but to cut to fight off the affects of the US economy. Speculators are looking for the ECB to hold at 4.00% and if they surprise with a cut, the Euro will most likely take a hit.
EUR/CHF has been in a ranging pattern since the end of January after the move from 1.67 to hitting a low around 1.58. I think the pair will return to the down trend if the ECB cuts rates, but I would like to jump in at a slightly better price. I look to short at the top of the range if the pair moves that way.
Also, I know you’re probably thinking, “If you think we’re going to go higher, why not buy up to 1.6150?” Well, the longer term trend is down, and remember, “the trend is your friend!”
Short EUR/CHF at 1.6150, stop 1.6250, pt1 at 1.6050, pt2 at 1.5850
Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust your position sizes accordingly.