Cross-Eyeing: EUR/CAD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2009-02-05 15:25

Good afternoon! My remaining position was closed this morning as EUR/CAD hit my second profit target at 1.5720. The euro fell as hoped for after the ECB held rates at 2% as expected.

1st Half: +150 pips
2nd Half: +300 pips
Total: +1.5% gain

So, a great end to the my trade and it looks like I get to start my weekend early. No new positions for tomorrow as we may see US employment data push currencies around. Stay tuned and have a great weekend!

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Trade Update: 2009-02-04 10:00

It looks like the trendline held as sellers jumped into EUR/CAD and pushed the pair lower to hit my first profit target at 1.5870. I locked in some profits there and now it’s time to create a risk free trade.

Half trade closed at 1.5870 to lock in profits. Adjusting stop on remaining position to breakeven at 1.6020 to create a risk free trade. Will continue to target 1.5720.

ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. Remember, besides the actual rate decision look for commentary from ECB President Trichet on whether future rate cuts are in the cards or not. Could be a big catalyst for euro movement, and hopefully for my trade that’s to the downside. Stay tuned for updates and adjustments!

Trade Idea: 2009-02-03 21:35

crosseyed chart

Good Evening! I don’t usually post up ideas on EUR/CAD, but tonight’s chart is one I couldn’t pass up! Will the technical setup play out and the pair swing back lower? Let’s check it out!

Pretty simple, really. I’ve got the 4 hour chart up on EUR/CAD, and the pair has found resistance several times at the falling trendline and made its way lower. It looks like the pair is finding resistance once again, and stochastics are indicating the current rally may be over done. The pair has been in a downtrend ever since hitting double top highs around 1.75 at the end of ’08, and we may see the move lower continue.

Fundamentally, the main focus for the pair will be what happens with the Euro as the ECB sets to meet this week and make a decision on interest rates. Expectations that the ECB will hold rates at 2.00% and it looks like the markets are pricing that in as the euro has rallied for the last couple of trading sessions. This could be a “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” type scenario forming, and if the ECB does hold rates we may see profit taking and EUR/CAD falling. Now, if they surprise with a rate cut, we most likely will see selling off the bat. And of course, in the VERY unlikely case that they do raise rates, the pair would probably rally further. I’m voting that they hold rates or cut. What do you think?

So, my idea is mostly a technical based one with a little bit of fundamental speculation. I plan to play it out this way:

Short EUR/CAD at market (1.6020), stop at 1.6170, pt1 at 1.5870, pt2 at 1.5720

Remember to never risk more than 1% of any trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly!

Stay tuned for updates and adjustments!

  • xaser

    I like that trendline resistanec too! too bad I/we didnt see it closer to it.. could have made about 100 more pips.

  • camelman

    wow …. the spread on FXCM is 20 pips.

  • cadarkitek

    Nice trade, i’m thinking short as well.

  • xaser

    I like that trendline resistanec too! too bad I/we didnt see it closer to it.. could have made about 100 more pips.

  • camelman

    wow …. the spread on FXCM is 20 pips.

  • cadarkitek

    Nice trade, i’m thinking short as well.

  • debonaire

    Yo Cyclopip,

    What made you choose the EUR/CAD as opposed to the EUR/CHF or EUR/JPY? Do you have a set group of currency pairs that you observe? or Do you look at various charts and apply your trading method?

    Thanks

  • debonaire

    Yo Cyclopip,

    What made you choose the EUR/CAD as opposed to the EUR/CHF or EUR/JPY? Do you have a set group of currency pairs that you observe? or Do you look at various charts and apply your trading method?

    Thanks

  • mscaramel

    The spread is 8 with GFT.

  • mscaramel

    The spread is 8 with GFT.

  • MaoriPip

    Not a bad call on this one my friend!!! Good spotting….

  • camelman

    Cyclopip …. eur/cad is at the same point. You think the resistance will hold?? Thanks

  • camelman

    Cyclopip …. eur/cad is at the same point. You think the resistance will hold?? Thanks