Cross-Eyeing: EURJPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-04-26 20:50

PoD Chart

And it finally comes to an end. The pair basically just bounced around in 120 pip range, stopping me out at breakeven. In hindsight, I think I may have been to slow on picking up that the pair was ranging instead of trending upwards.

In any case, I am still able to go out this trade slightly positive because of the interest rate differential between the euro and the yen, but flat in terms of pips. Hopefully, I can catch a couple of pips on range plays in the future as summer here in the US is fast approaching.

Profit in %: 0
Profit in pips: 0

Trade Adjustment: 2010-04-25 23:31

PoD Chart

Whoa! I’ve held this EURJPY trade open for almost 3 weeks now and it looks like my luck has been topsy turvy! First, I almost hit my take profit point, but price couldn’t break through resistance at 127.70. Then, on poor news and risk aversion moves, the pair dropped and I almost stopped out. It’s a good thing that support at 123.50 has generally held and now my trade is winning again.

The reason why the pair has dropped is because of increased risk aversion, primarily due to news coming out of Greece. Every time bad news about Greece’s debt comes out, we’ve been seeing a strong euro sell off. In fact, we just saw new yearly lows in the EURUSD pair! Luckily for me though, it seems that these concerns were lifted last Friday, as the euro bounced back.

What concerns me though, is how long this will actually last. I think that euro zone is still unstable, and that there still exists the possibility of poor news from other euro zone countries, like Portugal and Spain. I’m going to adjust my first profit target to 127.00 and move my stop to break-even, as I’m not quite sure how much higher this pair can go now that conditions have changed.

While I’m lowering reward to risk ratio, I think this is the correct move as I might miss out on hitting my take profit point again.

Trade Idea: 2010-04-06 23:04

PoD Chart

I spy with my one good eye a nice little setup on the EURJPY. A good opportunity to buy at a cheaper price?

Let’s start with the technicals. I’m looking to go long once the pair hits the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This level lines up nicely with the broken neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern from last week. With stochastics inching closer and closer to oversold territory, we could soon see an upward move.

Learning from my previous mistake, I’ll be setting my stop at 230 pips away from my entry point, almost double the pair’s average true range and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I’ve set two profit targets: one at 127.90, a former high and another at 130.00, a possible support-turned-resistance level.

On the fundamental side, I saw with my one good eye that the euro zone Sentix investor confidence index is set for release later today. The reading for April is slated to climb from -7.5 to -5.9, reflecting that pessimism among investors is fading. Still, conflicts surrounding the Greek aid plan could weigh the euro down and allow the EURJPY pair to fall until my entry order.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen could continue to weaken ahead of the BOJ interest rate decision. After all, the central bank announced an expansion of their quantitative easing measures last month and could echo the same downbeat sentiment this time around. Additionally, Thursday’s euro zone retail sales and German industrial production reports, which are both slated to post improvements, could lift the EURJPY higher.

Long EURJPY at 125.30, pt1 at 127.90, pt2 at 130.00, stop loss at 123.00. As usual, I will be risking only 1% of my account.

Oh, and don’t forget to hit me up at MeetPips.com!

  • Newbornbabytrader

    Got in long, great oppurtunity when usd is on the run against yen.

  • Newbornbabytrader

    Got in long, great oppurtunity when usd is on the run against yen.

  • Newbornbabytrader

    locked in profit after bad eurozone gdp no.

  • Newbornbabytrader

    locked in profit after bad eurozone gdp no.

  • pipsprof.

    This pair looks set to retest 121.40, on its weekly and daily charts,its in a descending channel and might head straight for the lower end of the channel before moving up again.Still on the sidelines though waiting for the coast to be clear b4 diving in.

  • Babysteps

    Hi
    It’s my first time to post in your blog sir, I too buy at 38.20 fib which is EW4 (124.75) depends my count.
    My positions
    Buy 125 and add 124.80 PT 127.40 PT2 128.80
    PS: Yearly PVT 129.40
    Let’s see :-)

  • fed

    it is a good 4hr setup, but if you look at daily with 200MA the price has stoped right below it and the MA is showing a downtrend, I didn’t take this trade

  • pipsprof.

    This pair looks set to retest 121.40, on its weekly and daily charts,its in a descending channel and might head straight for the lower end of the channel before moving up again.Still on the sidelines though waiting for the coast to be clear b4 diving in.

  • Babysteps

    Hi
    It’s my first time to post in your blog sir, I too buy at 38.20 fib which is EW4 (124.75) depends my count.
    My positions
    Buy 125 and add 124.80 PT 127.40 PT2 128.80
    PS: Yearly PVT 129.40
    Let’s see :-)

  • fed

    it is a good 4hr setup, but if you look at daily with 200MA the price has stoped right below it and the MA is showing a downtrend, I didn’t take this trade

  • dcharry

    It looks as this pair would keep moving down for some time, especially it is currently under 200MA and under Weekly S1, it might test 300MA which is 123.66,I will go long once if the stochastic is showing upward momentum.

  • pipsprof.

    Jeezz!!! Big Cyclopips,you must have been scared by the corrective run of this pair,but thank God,looks like 61.8% fib is holding steady.So I have decided to buy finally from 123.90 and hope it gets to 129.00 this time around.I think the good leg room you gave this trade have helped you.Lets hope Greece trouble is finally over at least for now.Happy trading!!!!!

  • pipsprof.

    Jeezz!!! Big Cyclopips,you must have been scared by the corrective run of this pair,but thank God,looks like 61.8% fib is holding steady.So I have decided to buy finally from 123.90 and hope it gets to 129.00 this time around.I think the good leg room you gave this trade have helped you.Lets hope Greece trouble is finally over at least for now.Happy trading!!!!!

  • Viper5

    I made a trade similar to this. I exited out at the gap on sunday. Good luck everyone.

  • Viper5

    I made a trade similar to this. I exited out at the gap on sunday. Good luck everyone.

  • pipsprof.

    I am out also, the opening gap will attempt to close up,so am out with a hefty 350pips at 127.40, I will atttempt to jump on board again if condition is favourable.Want to enjoy this win now,happy trading to you all!!!!

  • pipsprof.

    I am out also, the opening gap will attempt to close up,so am out with a hefty 350pips at 127.40, I will atttempt to jump on board again if condition is favourable.Want to enjoy this win now,happy trading to you all!!!!

  • visulube

    Heh C-E, great analysis, as of now, looks like the bounce occured a little earlier than you thought. Good analysis nonetheless.

  • visulube

    Heh C-E, great analysis, as of now, looks like the bounce occured a little earlier than you thought. Good analysis nonetheless.

  • fxview

    EURGBP is too unpredictable these days…

  • fxview

    EURGBP is too unpredictable these days…

  • pipsprof.

    Cyclopip, you held on to this trade too long, it formed a double top on the daily and you still held on,do accept defeat when your original trade plan is invalidated and move on.The psychological torture you must have gone through this while!!!!Hope you are able to pull this out of the fire,Cherio!!!

  • pipsprof.

    Cyclopip, you held on to this trade too long, it formed a double top on the daily and you still held on,do accept defeat when your original trade plan is invalidated and move on.The psychological torture you must have gone through this while!!!!Hope you are able to pull this out of the fire,Cherio!!!

  • Cyclopip

    Thanks for the feedback everyone! This trade has been open for quite a long while now and I think it’s time to make some adjustments. Hopefully it works out!

  • Cyclopip

    Thanks for the feedback everyone! This trade has been open for quite a long while now and I think it’s time to make some adjustments. Hopefully it works out!