Cross-Eyeing: Resistance Turned Support on EUR/CHF – Trade Cancelled

Trade Cancelled: 2010-10-27 02:18

New High Invalidates Trade Idea

The worse-than-expected UBS consumption indicator for September had the euro choke slamming pips out of the Swissy. Too bad I wasn’t in on all that action!

EUR/CHF found support at 1.3550 (50 pips above my trigger) before hustling to a new high. With my trade idea being based on the Fibonacci tool and with what could potentially become double tops, I’m gonna cancel my trade.

So, no harm, no foul. I’m gonna be patient and if I find another setup this week, I’ll post it up!

Trade Idea: 2010-10-26 02:59

Fib Play on EUR/CHF

How y’all doing forex friends? This week, I’m looking to go long on EUR/CHF, as I see a simple technical setup building up on the 4-hour chart.

After trading within a range of about 200 pips for most of October, EUR/CHF busted out and broke past resistance at 1.3480 last week. The pair rose to as high as 1.3660 but seems to be retracing now.

I’m looking to get in on a pullback, and after popping up the Fibonacci retracement tool, I think I’m going to set my buy orders at 1.3500. This is just above the resistance area and also lines up closely with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. With the Stochastic indicator still showing downward momentum, I think there’s a chance that the pair will fall and allow my orders to get triggered.

With regard to fundamentals, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the string of economic reports from Germany will be enough to choke hold the bears on the charts. After all, the region’s largest economy has been known for head-butting better-than-expected reports that send the euro on impressive pip-rallies.

Checking out our spankin’ economic calendar we see that we’ll have Germany’s inflation data on tap. With import prices beating the forecasts for September, there’s a good chance that the CPI report tomorrow will also follow suit. I hope lady luck will find me cute extra cute and let France’s consumer spending for September come in better than expected too. Ha!

I’m going to put my stop just below the middle of the former range, at 1.3400. My first take profit will be just below last week’s high at 1.3650. If I hit my first take profit, I’ll close half my position and move the stop of my remaining position to break even to lock in profits.

Again, here’s the gameplan:

Long EUR/CHF at 1.3500, stop at 1.3400, pt at 1.3660.

Hopefully I come out on top like the new UFC champ, my man Cain Velasquez. Did y’all catch that fight? Unbelievable! Let’s see how Brock responds to this!