Cross-Eyeing: GBPJPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-05-05 23:39

PoD Chart

Touchdown! I’m back in the game folks! Within hours after touching the 61.8% Fib, the GBPJPY tumbled down all the way to my profit targets. I am glad that I have finally ended my losing streak with this win.

First profit target hit at 142.70: +130 pips
Second profit target hit at 141.80: +220 pips
Total: +350 pips / +1.17% Gain

Risk aversion has been pretty strong in the last three days which has given the dollar and the yen the chance to reign supreme in the foreign exchange markets. I don’t know how long this will last, but for the meantime, I’ll be looking for more ways to ride the overall trend. Gotta catch those pips!

Trade Idea: 2010-05-04 23:35

PoD Chart

Considering how averse to risk traders are being right now and with the UK elections just around the corner, I’m looking for a short entry on the GBPJPY. Yesterday, the pair broke out of a symmetrical triangle but price looks like its pulling back now. Could we see a retest of the former rising trend line support?

With the UK parliamentary elections on today’s agenda, traders could be wary about buying up the pound. After all, as Pip Diddy keeps mentioning in his roundup, many are worried that about the possibility of a hung parliament.

On the economic front, only the construction PMI is due from the UK today. Although this report could print an improvement and provide the pound some relief, I highly doubt that traders would pay much attention to this report… at least in the longer term.

Aside from that, the current market theme of risk aversion suggests that the yen could go for more gains this week. As the growing fears of debt contagion dampen traders’ demand for risk, the yen could continue to benefit from the unwinding of carry trades.

I’ve decided to pop on the Fib tool to find a good entry. I noticed that the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level lines up closely with the 144.00 handle, which has proven to be an area of interest in the past. With stochastics not yet showing overbought conditions, I think that price could still rise to hit this point

I’m looking to short at the KILL ZONE around 144.00. I’ve set a stop loss of 150 pips, roughly equal to the pair’s average true range. By doing this, I am able to place my stop just above the falling trend line and former highs. My take profit points will be former lows at 142.70 and 141.80, respectively.

Again, here’s what I’m going to do:

Short GBPJPY at 144.00, stop loss at 145.50, take profit at 142.70 and 141.80.

Hopefully I don’t get blown out of this trade like the Cavs did yesterday! Did y’all watch that game?! While I’m not really a big Lebron fan, I do feel bad that he had to lose on the night that he was awarded his second straight MVP award. But really, was there any doubt that he wouldn’t win this year’s Most Valuable Player? Besides, I want to see the Lakers and Cavs meet in the Finals!

12 comments

  1. fed

    Nice setup, I am with you on this one, I will wait for the price to make a full stop first and then take it short close to this price.

    Reply
  2. Pipster4lyphe

    Agree Cyclo! I’m already in this trade at $143.40…so good call….I hope things pan out nicely!

    Reply
  3. fed

    Nice setup, I am with you on this one, I will wait for the price to make a full stop first and then take it short close to this price.

    Reply
  4. Pipster4lyphe

    This is the type of technical & fundamental analysis that I’ve been use to over the past year since I’ve been folowing you…Spot on call….I know there are many more in the bag! Great Job!!

    Reply
  5. Pipster4lyphe

    Agree Cyclo! I’m already in this trade at $143.40…so good call….I hope things pan out nicely!

    Reply
  6. Pipster4lyphe

    This is the type of technical & fundamental analysis that I’ve been use to over the past year since I’ve been folowing you…Spot on call….I know there are many more in the bag! Great Job!!

    Reply

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