Cross-Eyeing: EUR/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2009-02-24 11:11

It looks like Eurozone weakness was not able to overcome Japanese economy weakness and the previous resistance failed to hold. I took a hit as EUR/JPY rose to my stop out level at 122.50.

Total: -250 pips/ -1.00% loss

In retrospect, I think my mistake on this trade was under estimating the sentiment on the Japanese Yen and how it was losing value as a save haven currency. My focus was on the issues with Eurozone banks and the potential damage they would do to the euro. It was a good technical trade with high probability, but this was an example of why we need risk management plans for those times when we’re proven wrong. I took a small hit to my account and so I live to trade another day…and that’s what counts.

Thanks for checking out my blog and stay tuned for new ideas!

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Trade Update: 2009-02-23 14:21

Good afternoon! Just a quick update on my trade as I am now short EUR/JPY. My trade was triggered and after a scary run to just about 122.00, the pair has found sellers to push it back down.

I am still short bias on the Euro. Eurozone bank stability is still in question, and until we see a change in that situation, the Euro maybe prone to more selling on the rallies. There’s a bit of economic data this week, most notably the German Ifo Business Climate release. Further weakness may steer the Euro down lower.

I will continue to hold my position for now, but stay tuned for adjustments. Thanks!

Trade Idea: 2009-02-19 10:16

crosseyed chart

Good Morning! I thought I’d throw up a quick trade idea on EUR/JPY, as the pair hits major resistance and a psychologically significant level.

I have the EUR/JPY on the four hour chart, and it looks like today’s price action has brought the pair back up to the 120.00 area. The pair has recently met significant resistance and reverse, so the question is, “will resistance hold again?” Stochastics are indicating the pair is overbought in the short term and I like the probability of another reversal at these levels. Here’s what I’m going to do:

Short EUR/JPY at 120.00, stop at 122.50, pt1 at 117.50, pt2 at 112.50

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned!

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46 comments

  1. julian

    hi, cyclopip.. i have placed my orders for this trade at around 11.25am. am i too late ??? i noticed that the price just touched around 120 briefly just literally before the time your trade was posted.. so im thinking maybe if it does`nt come back im too late

    Reply
  2. PipWolf

    Julian,

    I got in at 119.70 after the trade had triggered. It’s not too late, you’ll just have a few less pips should the trade be successful. Be sure to adjust your position size to account for the fact that you’ll be risking more pips (because you’ll be entering further away from Cyclo’s S/L). It’s not too late, but your risk:reward ratio will be a little skewed.

    Reply
  3. julian

    hi, cyclopip.. i have placed my orders for this trade at around 11.25am. am i too late ??? i noticed that the price just touched around 120 briefly just literally before the time your trade was posted.. so im thinking maybe if it does`nt come back im too late

    Reply
  4. PipWolf

    Julian,

    I got in at 119.70 after the trade had triggered. It’s not too late, you’ll just have a few less pips should the trade be successful. Be sure to adjust your position size to account for the fact that you’ll be risking more pips (because you’ll be entering further away from Cyclo’s S/L). It’s not too late, but your risk:reward ratio will be a little skewed.

    Reply
  5. engin

    ok i will get in 119.250 but if it can not break 118.150 today i will get out my position because its very strong in weekly chart

    Reply
  6. julian

    so engin are you saying that you want to see it dip below 118.15 then creepback up to 119.25 before you enter ? or are you saying if it gets to 119.25 you will get in but then if it fails to go back down and break past 118.15 today you will pull out ?

    Reply
  7. engin

    ok i will get in 119.250 but if it can not break 118.150 today i will get out my position because its very strong in weekly chart

    Reply
  8. chitlinz

    well I crushed it yesterday! I also threw a side trade up on the pound/yen as it seemed to be mimicking the euro/yen trend and i was able to pick up another 100 pips in that trade. Overall I picked up 30% return! I could go buy a new car now haha.

    Reply
  9. julian

    so engin are you saying that you want to see it dip below 118.15 then creepback up to 119.25 before you enter ? or are you saying if it gets to 119.25 you will get in but then if it fails to go back down and break past 118.15 today you will pull out ?

    Reply
  10. bilal_shirazi

    It’s end of week. Are you planning on keepin gthis position open over the weekend? Also, isn’t JPY no longer now a risk aversion move. I’ve seen posts saying USD/JPY is targetted at 100+

    Reply
  11. chitlinz

    well I crushed it yesterday! I also threw a side trade up on the pound/yen as it seemed to be mimicking the euro/yen trend and i was able to pick up another 100 pips in that trade. Overall I picked up 30% return! I could go buy a new car now haha.

    Reply
  12. bilal_shirazi

    It’s end of week. Are you planning on keepin gthis position open over the weekend? Also, isn’t JPY no longer now a risk aversion move. I’ve seen posts saying USD/JPY is targetted at 100+

    Reply
  13. engin

    i allways hate say that but ”i told you !” 121.30 is very strong but now price is challenging that resistance but 122.750 is stronger than. this weekend i dont expect break 122.750 but if it will break uhhh what a rally !!!
    i lost much money and i learn lots of thing
    first: cut your loses quickly!!
    Second its more important actually: Dont go to market let it comes to you !!!

    Reply
  14. engin

    i allways hate say that but ”i told you !” 121.30 is very strong but now price is challenging that resistance but 122.750 is stronger than. this weekend i dont expect break 122.750 but if it will break uhhh what a rally !!!
    i lost much money and i learn lots of thing
    first: cut your loses quickly!!
    Second its more important actually: Dont go to market let it comes to you !!!

    Reply
  15. cyclopipcyclopip

    Hey everyone! Thanks for the comments! Sorry for the late response… I’ve been doing a bit traveling for the last few days….I updated my thoughts above, and I’m still short bias on Euro in general, so let’s see how it goes. Congrats to those of you who made pips one way or another on the EUR/JPY!

    Reply
  16. cyclopipcyclopip

    Hey everyone! Thanks for the comments! Sorry for the late response… I’ve been doing a bit traveling for the last few days….I updated my thoughts above, and I’m still short bias on Euro in general, so let’s see how it goes. Congrats to those of you who made pips one way or another on the EUR/JPY!

    Reply
  17. engin

    actually i made mistake when last friday it couldnt break 118.18 and i should go long but now i just wait and look what will happen if 121.30 hold the price i will go long or it cant, wait again 118.18 so unfortunately i am n waiting again :( or 122.75 can hold i will go long again

    Reply
  18. engin

    actually i made mistake when last friday it couldnt break 118.18 and i should go long but now i just wait and look what will happen if 121.30 hold the price i will go long or it cant, wait again 118.18 so unfortunately i am n waiting again :( or 122.75 can hold i will go long again

    Reply

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