Cross-Eyeing: Simple Fib Play on EUR/JPY – Took Profit!

Trade Closed: 2011-09-29 23:12

Winner, winner, bunny dinner! I finally got another decent win as the weekly open on EUR/JPY held like a charm!

EUR/JPY 1-hour chart

I actually wasn’t sure if my 2nd position would get triggered as price bounced right off the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Early yesterday though, EUR/JPY took a dip and tested the weekly open. Good thing for me, that level held like a boss!

Once price was at around 104.25, action stalled for a bit and I decided to take off my first position and lock in some profits. After reading my buddy Forex Gump‘s article about internal strife within Merkel’s party, I was a little concerned as to how the markets would react to the upcoming EFSF vote. I did leave my 2nd position open though, as I felt it was worth rolling the dice.

As it turns out, the German Bundestag approved the expansion of the EFSF, which helped boost euro pairs and helped my trade hit my profit target!

Also, it’s a good thing I put my profit target at 104.90 and not at the high, as it turned out to be the high for the day! Boo yeah!

Here’s a recap of what happened on my trade:

1st position: Bought at 103.83, closed position at 104.25: +42 pips / +0.27%

2nd position: Bought at 103.50, profit target hit at 104.90: + 140 pips / +0.90%

Total: + 182 pips / +1.27%

I could have made a bit more had I just left both positions open, but I do think I managed my trade properly. I’m satisfied with the win and hopefully, this is the start of a new winning streak for me!

Congrats to those of you who joined me! What a way to end September!

Trade Idea: 2011-09-28 2:05

This retracement play on EUR/JPY is simple and it makes sense, so I didn’t think twice about pulling the trigger and buying at market. It ain’t too late to join me! Check it, fellas!

EUR/JPY 1-hour chart

Risk appetite seems to be picking up lately, so I thought it might be wise to take advantage of this apparent change in sentiment. Bearishness for the euro, to be more specific, seems to have eased over the past few days. As a matter of fact, it has been able to put up respectable gains this week as Europe’s efforts to expand the EFSF seem to be calming the markets.

Anyway, the technical setup on this pair is what really caught my eye. A nice solid doji formed on EUR/JPY’s 1-hour chart just as price was flirting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Now if you scroll back a bit, you’ll see that this was also a former support and resistance level. Sweet, eh?

Since price was clearly no stranger to bouncing off this area (around 103.80), I decided to buy this bad boy at market. However, I also believe there’s a chance that the pair may continue down to retest the 50% Fib and WO before it shoots up, so I plan to scale in.

Here’s how I set up my trade:

Buy EUR/JPY at market (103.81), buy order at 103.50, stop loss at 102.90, profit target at 104.90.

I entered a little over half my position at market, and the rest I plan to buy if and when price retests the 50% Fib/ WO/ 103.50 MiPs zone. I placed my stop loss below the 103.00 MaPs and 61.8% Fib, while setting my profit target in the area of the most recent swing high.

As usual, I’m only risking a total of 1% of my account on this trade. We can’t go betting the farm on every sweet setup we see, now can we?

So there you have it, fellas! What do you think of my EUR/JPY trade idea? Anyone care to join me?

  • Forex Vendetta

    Good job m8! I’m really happy for you :)) As you know I initially joined you on this trade, but as I started lossing confidence I exited with a small win, which in my mind, I’d rather exit with a win than a “potential” loss if it had gone the other way :)) Look forward to trading with ya next week :))

    • cyclopip

      Congrats on the win! I also closed part of my position early to lock in some profits. Hope we do well this week! Good luck!

  • Dan

    I watched the price from start to finish of yout trade. Your profit target was pretty much spot on to the Pip! Very impressed…..

    • cyclopip

      Thanks Dan! That’s actually one reason why I try to set my profit targets just a few pips below the previous support or resistance level – sometimes it just doesn’t quite reach it!