Cross-Eyeing: Pullback on CAD/JPY – Trade Invalidated

Trade Idea: 2011-7-05 21:40

CAD/JPY 4-hour chart

The pair broke above Thursday’s highs, and is now trading just below key resistance around 84.50. This means that a new swing high has been made, therefore invalidating my trade setup.

No harm, no foul. I got the direction right, I just didn’t get triggered. I did spot the potential break of the falling trend line earlier last week, but I felt it was a really risky to put on a position ahead of the Greek vote.

For this week, we’ve got a slew of interest rate decisions coming out, so we could see range trading followed by strong break outs depending on central bank rhetoric.

That’s all for now and I hope we all grab some pips this week.

Before I head out, I just wanna give a quick shoutout to my boy Derek Jeter. It’s tough coming back from the DL but I know you can break through and hit the magical 3000 number!

Trade Idea: 2011-6-30 03:10

CAD/JPY 4-hour chart

Boomshakalaka! Caddy’s on fire baby!

CAD/JPY FINALLY broke through a key falling trend line, as the Canadian dollar got a nice boost from good economic data yesterday.

First, the Greek government got enough votes to pass the new austerity measures. This helped relieve some stress in the markets and allowed traders to go back to their risk taking ways.

Second, CPI figures came in hotter than anticipated, as headline inflation rang in at 0.7%. Early estimates were calling for a figure of just 0.2%. This sparked some speculation that the Bank of Canada may have to raise rates soon in order to curb rising inflation.

Lastly, oil prices rose $2 yesterday, giving the CAD some nice support. Remember, oil prices and the Canadian dollar are like MJ and Scottie – whenever oil prices rise, the CAD tends to benefit as well!

All this helped CAD/JPY jump up the charts and break through the falling trend line! Considering that the trend line held pretty strongly in the past, I do feel that there’s a solid chance that the pair will continue to rise over the next couple of weeks. You know what they say – the stronger it holds, the bigger the break!

Of course, I’m not just gonna jump in like a bandwagon fan. Instead, I’m gonna wait for a pullback lower before establishing a long position.

I popped up the Fibonacci tool to help me spot a better entry point. It seems to me that the 38.2% Fib level could be a good place to jump in. This price area also lines up with a former high at around 82.70, as well as the former falling trend line. I’m hoping that this price area could be a resistance-turned-support level.

I’m putting my stop loss past the 61.8% Fib and well below the trend line. If the pair does fall to this area, my trade wouldn’t make much sense anymore. As for my profit targets, I’m aiming for the psychological levels of 84.00 and 85.00. These levels held as resistance in the past.

Looking ahead, I think the Greek news will continue to dominate the market so that’s one thing I’m gonna pay attention to. Also, monthly Canadian GDP data is due later today at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations are that GDP fell by just 0.1% the in April. If this reports surprises to the upside, don’t be surprised to see the CAD rise once again.

Again, here’s the game plan:

Long CAD/JPY at 82.70, stop loss at 81.95, take profit at 84.00 and 85.00.

Who’s gonna join me on this trade? Hit me up on Twitter and Facebook and let me know how you plan to trade this pair! Peace out homies!

3 comments

  1. Cheshboy

    I’m an absolute beginner, but I have noticed that when the Nikkei goes up, the currency pair against Yen tends to go down. Am I missing something here?  

    Reply

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