Cross-Eyeing: Major Resistance on EUR/CHF – Orders Cancelled

Orders Cancelled: 2011-11-23 01:10

EUR/CHF 1-hour chart

There goes that trade idea! As it turns out, the 1.2400 resistance area was just too strong for EUR/CHF. It successfully kept euro buyers at bay, forcing the pair to turn back down and miss my sell order at 1.2450. Bummer, man!

To be honest, I was actually confident that price would eventually pop up to trigger my trade. Though the WO / 1.2400 major psychological handle was a tough resistance zone, the higher lows that EUR/CHF was forming had me believing that there was a good chance the pair would rise just high enough to tap me in.

Sadly, the euro couldn’t find enough buyers despite the fact that the IMF had just revealed more tools to improve liquidity and financing in Europe.

It seems no one wants to put their money on the euro these days. Hopefully, I’ll be able to capitalize on this and catch me a few pips by the end of the week. I’m already eyeing a short setup on EUR/GBP, but I’ll leave that discussion for tomorrow!

Thanks for following, and congrats to those who were able to sell EUR/CHF at 1.2400. Peace out, brothas!

Trade Update: 2011-11-22 02:48

Drats, I just missed out on getting triggered last week! Nevertheless, I’m going to leave my orders open for now, as I really don’t see this pair rushing past the 1.2450 price level.

EUR/CHF 1-hour chart

For one, USD/CHF is still chilling just below key resistance at the .9300 level, and as long as price doesn’t trade above that, I don’t see EUR/CHF rising much higher either.

Secondly, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the markets right now, with a lot of focus on the euro zone and its debt problems. Not only is the spotlight shining bright on Italy’s and Spain’s disappointing bond auctions, but word on the street is that Moody’s has warned about a potential French debt downgrade. If France, the euro zone’s second largest economy, is in trouble, it definitely doesn’t bode well for the rest of the bloc.

So for now, I will be keeping my short orders open, but I’ll be sure to keep my one good eye on any developments in the market that could shift risk sentiment.

Good luck trading this week!

Trade Idea: 2011-11-15 05:44

EUR/CHF 4-hour chart

After seeing the awesome price action on EUR/JPY last week, I’m summoning the courage to give this euro cross a shot! Let’s hope this one ends up a winner too!

Surprise, surprise! Risk aversion is back! Yesterday, we saw the euro sell off like cray cray as old ghosts came a-haunting. Uncertainty in the euro zone (AGAIN?!) and a weak Italian bond auction snuffed demand for the shared currency, pushing it lower against its major counterparts. And to think, it had just come off a bull run from positive developments in Greece and Italy over the weekend!

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me like the markets get spooked very easily these days. I think this just goes to show that market confidence is still low and that it’ll take a major catalyst to cause a major shift in risk appetite.

That being said, I don’t think there’s much upside left on EUR/CHF, especially since it’s approaching a critical resistance area. As you can see, it’s already within striking range of the PWH and 1.2450 MiPs, a former area of interest. I don’t see EUR/CHF breaking past this level anytime soon, at least not with the markets in risk-off mode.

So here’s my strategy:

Sell EUR/CHF at 1.2450, stop loss at 1.2510, profit targets at the PWL and 1.2130.

As you can see, I placed my stop just above the 1.2500 handle just so I have an extra line of defense in case 1.2450 gives way. Also, I am thinking of taking profits in two key areas. My first profit target is the PWL, at around 1.2264, but I’m hoping that price will eventually hit 1.2130, which is the bottom of a long-term range that Big Pippin pointed out on his Daily Chart Art.

Even though I feel very confident about this trade, I’m only putting 1% of my account on the line. We can’t go betting the farm on every trade! That would be terrible risk management!

So what are your thoughts on this setup? Anyone willing to join me?



  • MaxiV

    im going on this one…

    • cyclopip

      Awesome! Let’s hope things turn out well!

  • Andrew

    I shorted at 1.2420 in my demo account (I’m a newbie). How long could this trade take to hit the target/stopout? Is it days or even weeks?

    • cyclopip

      Since our SL and PTs are pretty much within the pair’s weekly average true range, it’s possible that our targets will be hit within a week. But remember, nothing is certain! ;) Personally, I’m only looking to hold this trade for a few days at max.

  • ケーちゃん

    Looks like 1.2400 resistance is holding strong. I’m shorting now 1.2390

    • cyclopip

      I know what you mean! Good luck, bro!

  • vincejg327

    I’ll take that ride.

    • cyclopip

      The pair is turning farther away from 1.2450! Drats! Were you able to short at the 1.2400 resistance?