Break or Bounce on EUR/JPY? – No Trade

No Trade: 2012-10-16 03:01


Last week, I was keeping my eye on this sweet double top formation on EUR/JPY. I wasn’t so sure how I wanted to play it, so I decided to take a wait-and-see approach before pulling the trigger.

Unfortunately, we didn’t see a break of the neckline NOR a test of the 100.00 handle! Price stopped short of testing the major area of interest, as it reversed at around 100.17 before zooming back up late in the week thanks to yen weakness! So much for that!

As it is, it seems that price action is now forming a symmetrical triangle and is currently testing the falling resistance trend line.

To be honest though, I’m not quite sure if I’d want to put on a short position right now. EUR/JPY has closed higher four days in a row now and there doesn’t appear to be anything on the horizon to suggest it will reverse course. That said, I’m gonna chill on the sidelines first and look for other setups to develop before putting up any trades.

Thanks for following me and good luck trading over the rest of the week! If you have any trading setups in mind, hit me up on Facebook, Twitter, or Google+!

Trade idea: 2012-10-11 03:35

I spy with my one big eye – a double top on EUR/JPY! Have a look at this baby:


It’s a classic double top pattern with its neckline right on the 100.00 major psychological handle! Ain’t she a beauty?

Now, I have to be honest with you guys – I’m not exactly sure how I wanna play this trade just yet.

On one hand, I’m tempted to go long around 100.00, since this was once a solid support zone.

But on the other hand, the double top and lower highs make me think that this pair might just continue falling… and I don’t want to catch a falling knife! Besides, sentiment seems to be favoring euro bears at the moment, as the prospect of a Spain bailout continues to loom over the markets.

So for now, I’m on wait-and-see mode. I’ll probably go long if some reversal candlesticks form around the 100.00 handle. However, if the pair manages to break cleanly through the neckline, I’ll get ready to sell this sucker. Of course, I’d have a much easier time making a decision if Stochastic gave me confirmation, so I’ll be watching out for signs of overbuying/overselling and divergences as well.

What do you guys think? Do you favor a bounce or a break? Hit me up with some comments below and let’s get a discussion going, homies!

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  • Bijoymj

    I am bullish on this pair. Recently the price tested my stop loss @ 100.14 for two times and it just returned to the rising trend line. Trade update is published in baby pips forums at

    • cyclopip

      Nice trend line there, bud! Is your trade still open? If so, were you able to add to your position with the recent dip?

      • Bijoymj

        Yes, it is open. Trade is up by some pips and moved SL to BE. I am not adding positions as I have another 2 positions (long CAD/JPY for which SL is already moved to BE and long EUR/AUD for which price is still stuck at the entry area) open for which trade ideas are posted in Post # 21&32 of the above thread.…

        • cyclopip

          I have to say, great risk management, mate! Hope you hit your profit targets. I’ll be rooting for ya!

          • Bijoymj

            Thanks a lot

  • Ansitrader

    In the daily time frame it looks price will go up, there is strong bullish candle signal in daily time frame, but if we take a look in 4 hour chart , it seems we should sell now ,confusion….ZZZZZZzzzz

    • cyclopip

      Yeah, seems like it might take a while before price revisits 100.00. The rally started much sooner than I thought! Looking at the chart I posted above, I should’ve probably entered a small position already. I would’ve caught the bottom! Oh well. Sitting on the sidelines for now!

  • Vaios

    yesterday’s volume was increased and the bulls went smashing! but the confirmation from stochastic is needed…badly! The price has just crossed over the 5-day MA! But is this enough to send the bulls loose??

  • Demetrios

    I think EUR/JPY would try to test 102.50+ ! I am long at the moment till 101.90.