Watchin' the Aussie and Kiwi...
I've received quite a few emails today about what my plans are for this evening Asian session and what my thoughts are on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Well, first of all, I typically don't like to trade Asia. The only exception being if there are some significant events that have set ups...tonight would be such an example. Between Geithner and a handful of hot zones (economic events) coming out of Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
I am and have been watching the USD/JPY most of the day. You can read about my swing set up here.
I have to tell you that the NZD/USD is not in place that has me too excited. The pair is up against a double top, if not triple top at .6627, .6630, and .6638. The 240 minute chart is indicating more of a distribution cycle so I would be more inclined to short the ceiling with a 10-12 pip stop loss based on the .6638 high.
I'm not wild about going head to head with a triple top and expecting a breakout in front of a hot zone, so the breakdowns on the 15 and 30 minute kiwi look like better set ups. I avoid momentum plays where the actual release initiates the trade so the 15 minute which is already triggering a short is looking like a lower risk, shorter term set up.
Now the Aussie presents a different scenario altogether. With a fresh breakout on the daily there is bullish momentum. The 15, 30, and 60 minute charts are heading sideways. I prefer the look on the 30 minute chart. It's a momentum play which is to say the market is sideways and I am waiting for a breakout or breakdown. The MACD Histogram on the 30 is currently positive so I am leaning towards a breakout.
The other set up would require a pullback to the 34ema high on the 240 minute chart. This set up is swing and that means we need a correction of the current uptrend. The 34ema high is currently .8210 and this is particularly nice because the .8200 level can act as a backstop with that major psychological number.
Related Posts:
- USD/JPY 60 min Swing Set Up 16:28 28 July 2009
- Consolidation on the Cable 16:52 03 March 2009
- USD/CAD Breakout Reaches Psychological Level Ceiling 19:51 24 September 2009
- EUR/JPY Set Up for Asian Session 18:35 03 September 2009
- Follow up on my JPY/USD play 15:25 24 February 2009
Archived Comments (6)
Forex Blog: Chartology


Thank you for the tips! I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to educate us.
Hi,
What is the best pair for the Forex? EUR/USD or another pair?
Cheers
Great read!
Awesome post.
I don't think there is such a thing as a "best pair" but rather I look for pairs that are moving with their market pulse counterparts (dollar, dow, crude, commodities).
...and RISK has to be considered as well! Consider that usually the USD/JPY is less volatile on average than the EUR/USD.
Check out PowerStats for more on what pairs are volatile and when...
http://autochartist.com/index.php/en/products-and-services/powerstatsmenu.html
and be sure to check out my latest post on gauging risk/reward expectations!
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/chartology/it_was_my_birthday_but_the_presents_are_for_you.html
tanks vey nice article adana oto kiralama