About Chartology

With "Chartology", you'll be sitting in the front row as I discuss price action analysis, market cycles, chart pattern setups, optimal trading time and volatility analysis, as well as the psychology behind price action. Put these tools together and you're looking at how to begin mastering the charts. In fact, be sure to watch the "Your Forex Questions Answered" video here.

Every day, occasionally more often, I'll additionally discuss order entry, U.S. Dollar Index, crude oil, gold, and the Dow. Forex trading allows and requires a viewpoint that goes beyond simply analyzing the pairs. I'll explain in detail how I scan for trades — I call it "triage" — how I set up trades proactively, and how I manage entries and risk. Trading isn't all that diffcult but the process of finding your tools and approach and trusting them is. So here's your front row in my trading office, thanks for reading, let's get going!

Who is Queen Cleopiptra?

Raghee Horner is a private trader, founder of EZ2Trade Software, entrepreneur, and author. She has been trading forex, as well as futures and stocks for almost twenty years. She is a regular contributor at a number of sites including FXStreet, Trading Markets, Autochartist, eSignal and a featured speaker at the Forex and Traders Expos. Her commentary and analysis is seen daily by thousands of traders at her personal blog ragheehorner.com. She has written articles for Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Currency Trader, Your Trading Edge, and Traders Journal magazine.

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ISM Pushes the Dow Lower, here's how I'm playing today's risk aversion

Posted 12 months ago | 9:10 AM | 02 Jul 2012 | Comments

May unemployment in Europe was at a record high and China's exports have weakened suggesting a deeper slowdown. All this as the Friday rally is seeing some profit taking and a significant sell-off caused by the slightly weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. None of the events singlehandedly were enough to push the equities market lower, but together it was a weight too heavy to carry for the bulls.

The correction may be inevitable but there are glimpses of strength in currencies like the aussie and kiwi. Both these two comm-dolls are gaining even amidst the euro anxiety.

So as the risk appetite makes its way into the market, the aussie and kiwi are just that much stronger and when there is risk aversion, these two currencies are holding their own. Talk about relative strength.

The AUD/USD is facing a substantial hurdle however as the daily chart is at the doorstep of the 200DMA (200 period simple moving average on the daily chart). With the 1.0280 - 1.0300 level overhead this will added more selling pressure especially as the Dow is still lower based on likely clearing period profit taking and the ISM number.

Even a 38.2% to 50% daily retracement would put the AUD/USD at 1.0170 and 1.013 respectively. That would leave plenty of room to move lower on a 60-minute Wave reversal entry short if prices can break through the 1.0200 major psychological level. The challenge is that I do not want to commit to a much of a longer-term bearish view on this pair. A intraday short sell would simply take advantage of some profit taking and short-term weakness.

By the way, even those of you more interesting in a long set up in the AUD/USD should be rooting for a near-term correction that could lead into a buy. The move lower could bring some bulls back out - bulls who may be sitting on the sidelines because they think the pair moved higher "too far, too fast". In an uptrend or in a bullish environment, traders will buy into pullbacks so some near-term term weakness could be shorter and then bought. More on that if/as it happens.