Recognizing Trend Transitions

I recorded this video series in small chunks (back on January 25) so each topic could be covered in about five minutes although on the last one I lost track of time so it runs just under ten minutes.

(And this is a great follow-up to my last update here at Baby Pips, “The EUR/USD Enters a Zone of Major Resistance”)

This four-part video series (links are below) is about breaking down the market trend transition we see in any market and focus on what’s happening right now in the EUR/USD. The daily is losing it’s downtrend and the transition will and has changed the Directional Bias of the pair.

The psychology of a downtrend lends itself to swing shorts on bounces or corrections but once the 34EMA loses its “four to six o’clock” angle the strategy is no longer applicable. This is a tough transition psychologically because the last swing is a losing trade. And the next trade is one that must take into account the new and often unsettled market trend.

Shifting gear is hard to do especially when the old gear got you as far as it did.

I see the EUR/USD in a state of transition and not to be left out…I see the U.S. Dollar Index in the same transition. While the EUR/USD is moving sideways at the BOTTOM of its range, the greenback is doing it at the TOP of its uptrend.

The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement is currently resistance and this lines up with past levels of selling pressure as well as it being jsut six pips from the 1.3250 major psychological level. I also think the lack of buying support at 1.3200 is especially telling of where the bulls are willing to step in and support the pair – which actually ended up being close to the 1.3180 minor psychological level.

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Here’s what the daily EUR/USD looks like right now. Pay particular attention to the green GRaB candles and also the fact that the 34EMA Wave is NOT heading higher at “twelve to two o’clock”…

So here are the links to the videos. I think watching them in a bigger video size would be best since I get into a lot of price detail as the series progresses but there is a lot of video goodness at my You Tube channel.

PART ONE of Trend Transitions
PART TWO of Trend Transitions
PART THREE of Trend Transitions
PART FOUR of Trend Transitions

Ok, so if you like this…you’re gonna LOVE my webinar tomorrow. It’s a free one that I’ll be doing at 8:00PM EST and you can register here.

  • TradeViper

    Queen o licious, same pattern as Oct 23 – Nov 6. I have to agree with you. Interesting that this time the Greek issue is almost moot. Oma Agela and the rest of the Euro overseers will not allow Greece to fail, and the Greek Govt is on basically on board. So maybe a change is in the wind.

    TV

  • Ilya Gruntal

    Simple correction, head and shoulders at 4H will give us a correction to a correction, another wave to the upper side after ~1.34, and the final wave downside to 1.20. Yes, i tell you da future!

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