Inauguration Day, the Dow, and the Dollar-Yen

With yesterday’s Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and today’s Presidential Inauguration there are plenty of reasons to think that the week will not officially begin normal trading until tomorrow, January 21st.

The Dow heads lower about 3/4 quarters of the time on Inauguration day and with President Obama 80%-plus approval rate behind him there is no reason to think that the weak equities market is any kind of reflection on his administration.

The U.S. Dollar is stronger today and here’s where we can consider inherent strength/weakness versus comparative strength/weakness: Why is the U.S. Dollar strong today? Lower crude oil? Nope. The February contract of crude is up 2.24 trading around 39.00 which is a considerable move when the contract was trading lower at 32.70 around 4:00am EST this morning.

The reason lies in comparative strength/weakness. There is nothing but terrible news coming out of Europe and the U.K. The fiber and cable are selling off as a result and propelling the dollar index higher…comparative strength. There is nothing going on in the U.S. that would lead traders to push the greenback higher and if anything there is plenty of reason for the greenback to trade lower. This is yet another way to take the temperature of the forex markets and get the hint that maybe traders should be extra cautious.

What is great about the current relationship of the dollar index, fiber, and cable though is that the correlation between is as it should be: Inverse.

The charts I am keeping an eye on today are the USD/CAD and the resistance from 1.2680 to 1.2700. Today’s BoC rate decision was already discounted into Canada and the resistance at 2700 was tested. This rejection is opening the door to a pullback and a potential shot at a buy on the 30 and 60 minute charts setting up a swing long off support between 1.2620 and 1.2590.

The dollar-yen, which is what I am watching closely today, is trading down through the 90.00 major psychological number which has broken no doubt in part to the Dow’s weakness.

indu 30 1-20-2009 2-51-01 PM.gif

jpy 30 1-20-2009 2-47-24 PM.gif

Currently, the Dow is down 225 points and this could be much more once the bonds close at 3:00pm EST. With the index hovering around the 8050 level, a break through this support could easily have the Dow down to 7995 (the 1/15/09 low). This will in turn pull the USD/JPY down and perhaps have it back at the 89.00 level is traded around all last week.

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