EUR/USD Defying Gravity

There’s a battle occurring between near-term sentiment (risk appetite) and a longer-term (bleaker) outlook for the market and specifically the euro. But the euro refuses to obey the headlines, the doubt, and the optimism trade is still on.

This morning I recorded a series of videos and this was one of them. I think I could call it, “Don’t mess with Merkel” as this is really the continuing saga of Angela Merkel’s efforts to keep the EU together and the euro viable.

No this video isn’t really just about Angela Merkel, in fact it’s hardly about her at all, but I can’t help but think that this is the lasting legacy of 2011. The euro is at a crossroads where data, headlines, and a longer-term pessimistic outlook is being shoved aside for a near-term optimism play. It’s an interesting time for EUR/USD traders and an even more interesting time for equities players in so many ways. I have personally never seen earnings season take such a backseat to anything. But this geo-political event in Europe is – to be fair – historical.

If you like this video, let me know, I’ll keep doing more like it. You can also check out my You Tube channel at

  • Raghee Horner

    This theme doesn’t seem to be going anywhere folks…I’m certainly not above saying that I’ve been wrong on a couple entries as the EUR/USD has not broken down but with the strong movement above the 34EMA Wave, daily chart shorts are no longer a valid entry for me. I’ll also add that as of today, and as we near the end of earnings seasons, the beginning of the November and December holiday seasons, I’ll be making my annual switch to the shortest of my time frames for entries, relying on my Between the Greens entries on five-minute charts.

  • Tuulen

    The euro € is not backed by a “federal” banking system, and so all backers of EU debt now risk loosing their shirts.  That makes for a very unpredictable currency.

    The thing is, as originally planned the euro € was never intended to have a federal banking system, but due to politicians is now is forced to consider such a system.

    EU politicians are to blame.  

  • Pip Grip

    Let me add, that I remember Europe of many years ago, that when traveling between European nations it was always necessary to exchange money at a bank, from one currency to another, at the profit of the banks, and that is what the euro € was originally designed to eliminate, bank profits, as an agreement among only several advanced European economies.  

    But then the politicians attempted to spread the euro € throughout Europe.

  • Victor

    Keep up the good work..

  • Raghee Horner

    Love the contributions Pip Grip.
    Thanks for your kind words Victor.

  • Bgp

    but have you not heard she is hasty trying to reinforce d-mark as a currency again to choose from

  • Harsimran

    which charting software are u using??

  • Harsimran

    And which broker.??

    • Raghee Horner

      Harsimran, this is a version of MT4 from InterbankFX with my 34EMA Wave and GRaB plug-ins 

  • Adam (Slainye)

    Thanks for this- it’s somewhat reassuring to know I’m not crazy in my longer-term expectations that there is weakness up ahead, and that all this bullishness ‘feels’ counter-trend. Obviously, we’re supposed to only trade what we see, but we also see weakness, or at least a lot of merkiness in the charts (see what I did there)…

  • Make Forex Pay

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  • Amal Nafi

    I think it will continue according to sunbirdfx

  • Harsimran

    Thanks For Ur precious reply mam