About Chartology

With "Chartology", you'll be sitting in the front row as I discuss price action analysis, market cycles, chart pattern setups, optimal trading time and volatility analysis, as well as the psychology behind price action. Put these tools together and you're looking at how to begin mastering the charts. In fact, be sure to watch the "Your Forex Questions Answered" video here.

Every day, occasionally more often, I'll additionally discuss order entry, U.S. Dollar Index, crude oil, gold, and the Dow. Forex trading allows and requires a viewpoint that goes beyond simply analyzing the pairs. I'll explain in detail how I scan for trades — I call it "triage" — how I set up trades proactively, and how I manage entries and risk. Trading isn't all that diffcult but the process of finding your tools and approach and trusting them is. So here's your front row in my trading office, thanks for reading, let's get going!

Who is Queen Cleopiptra?

Raghee Horner is a private trader, founder of EZ2Trade Software, entrepreneur, and author. She has been trading forex, as well as futures and stocks for almost twenty years. She is a regular contributor at a number of sites including FXStreet, Trading Markets, Autochartist, eSignal and a featured speaker at the Forex and Traders Expos. Her commentary and analysis is seen daily by thousands of traders at her personal blog ragheehorner.com. She has written articles for Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Currency Trader, Your Trading Edge, and Traders Journal magazine.

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Dollar & Dow Rally and QE Unwinding

Posted 1 year ago | 1:11 PM | 01 May 2012 | Comments

Usually the conversation surrounding a Dow rally is dollar weakness but not today, the market's fallen down the "QE" rabbit hole.

Here'a are some ideas to consider. It connects the dots to reveal a bullish outlook.

- Fed member Lacker has come out to say that rates could rise in mid-2013. Add to the solid ISM number and QE looks like it's being taken off the table and put in the dusty corner of the closet.

- The Dow rallies on the strong ISM - but there's still a rocky road ahead or at least one with plenty of potential twists and turns - as tomorrow's ADP kicks off the countdown to Friday's NFP.

- The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied off technical support and while there's an argument that QE is taken off the table (I agree) I don't see the long-term dollar strength if risk is coming back on the table.

- If QE is being put in the closet, and according to FOMC member Lacker, rates could be hiked as soon as mid next year...the implication is that the economy is stronger/recovering. Could the U.S. be the second the raise rates? (assuming that Carney and the BOC are the first) Traders are factoring in a 2/3 likelihood that the BOC will raise before Sept.5.

Technically, the Dow must close above 13,300 (and the YM futures contract must close above 13,200) This could shift opinion in such a way that continued momentum and an uptrend could form...but I am getting waaaay ahead of myself. There's a little report called NFP that has to be considered before any such proclamation.

The daily Dow shows that the market has "escaped" the range of the April 17 rally and has now surged through 13,300.

Was too much expectation of QE baked in to the dollar cake? There's certainly an argument for that as the dollar has yet to break down through the day congestion support and is trying to find some attention and momentum north of 79.00. I still see the least path of resistance is down for the greenback but let the price action prove it.

The greenback is finding support and an intraday rally alongside the Dow...today. I don't expect it to last long though.

Hey traders, a little bonus for this week. I am doing a free webinar Wedneday at 5:00pm EST. Register because the room size is limited and even if you can't make it live, when you register you'll be notified when the recording becomes available for playback.