Does the uptrend on the EUR/USD have enough to rally through 1.3800?

The EUR/USD (aka the “fiber”) has been rallying across the intraday time frames of the 15, 30, and 60 minute charts. The bounce from 1.3600 (the low was actually 1.3582) has been significant enough to even level the 240 minute chart to the beginning stages of accumulation (sideways market) after a sustained downtrend from 1.4600.

Now the question must be: Does the EUR/USD have enough buying momentum to rally through the 1.3800 psychological level?

The mark up cycle on the 15, 30, and 60 minute chart is far from strong as there have been multiple attempts at the 1.3800 level.

EUR/USD intraday

This zoomed in view shows the rejections highs from left to right at 1.3813, 1.3838, 1.3798, 1.3801, 1.3806, 1.3807, 1.3811. So evidently it’s not an issue of whether the market can pierce the “00” but rather whether there is enough buying support to sustain it — which currently there is not.

Some of the surrounding factors right now to consider are the “market pulse” charts of the Dow which is up 28 and the U.S. Dollar Index which is down .032. A stronger equities pre-market should support the EUR/USD and a strong open would most certainly push the U.S. Dollar Index lower and rally the EUR/USD through 1.3800.

Since Bernanke‘s statement is to be read today and not presented by him due to weather restricted travel issues, the market’s reaction could be uncertain. The statement will say everything he would BUT will there be the same psychological impact? It’s to be seen…

The 240 minute chart has formed a falling wedge pattern and the downtrend line of the pattern is of particular interest to me since a break of that would not only be a 1.3800 break but also a breakout and arguably a reversal of the previous downtrend (mark down) cycle.

falling wedge pattern

– the Queen