Trading CAD/JPY’s Symmetrical Triangle – Stopped Out

Trade Closed: 2013-06-26 2:55

What a double whammy for the Loonie! After breaking above the 100 SMA last week, it looked like CAD/JPY was headed for its previous highs.

But lo and behold! Near the end of the U.S. session the IMF surprisingly announced that it could stop its contributions to Greece’s bailout package unless the EZ leaders find a way to plug a 3B EUR shortfall in Greece’s stimulus package.

The yen crosses took most of the impact of the report, but it wasn’t enough to drag CAD/JPY to my stop loss. Heck, I even happily tweeted that my trade was up by a couple of pips only hours after the report was released!

CAD/JPY Trade Idea

What finished off my trade setup was Canada’s surprisingly worse-than-expected inflation and retail sales reports. Because many had expected good things from Canada, the Loonie reacted strongly to the disappointments. As a result, CAD/JPY easily headed towards my SL area.

This trade just teaches me to be careful of taking breakout trades. I now see that the size of the breakout has already almost reached the size of the base of the symmetrical triangle, so I probably should have been more watchful over new market themes that could move the pair.

How about you? Any luck trading the Loonie or the yen last week?

Trade Idea: 2013-06-20 6:55

Aaah… breakout! There’s nothing like a good old-fashioned symmetrical triangle break that brings out the 80s vibe in me. Although I wasn’t able to jump in the initial breakout on CAD/JPY, I plan to hop in on the pullback to the 94.00 level, which is just in line with the top of the triangle.

CAD/JPY Trade Idea

I’m thinking that, with Kuroda set to take center stage in his speech tomorrow, the yen could be in for another round of selling. After all, the BOJ’s current easing program has been under heavy criticism and BOJ Governor Kuroda might step up and defend it.

Meanwhile, the Loonie could continue to enjoy support from the relatively upbeat remarks from new BOC Governor Poloz. The dude did talk about the prevailing weaknesses in the Canadian economy, but he also expressed optimism that they could engineer a strong rebound later on.

With that, I’m looking to buy CAD/JPY at 94.00 with a 100-pip stop and an initial target at 96.00. Ultimately, I’m going to aim for the 97.00 mark but I plan on managing my risk by moving my stop to entry once price reaches 96.00. Make sure you read our risk disclosure if you’re thinking of following suit!

What do you think of my trade idea? Can I score back-to-back wins with this one?

Trade Idea: 2013-06-19 7:45:53
CAD/JPY is getting ready to breakout, I can feel it! The pair is consolidating tightly in a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour time frame, as traders await the top-tier market events scheduled for this week.

CAD/JPY Trade Idea

As I mentioned in my Comdoll Trading Kit, Loonie traders are waiting to hear from new BOC head Poloz today and are also on their toes for the Canadian CPI and retail sales figures on Friday.

Because of that, CAD/JPY seems to be sitting on its hands for now, as though waiting for more clues from the markets. Stochastic is in the oversold zone, hinting that there might be a bigger chance for an upside breakout, but I haven’t set my entry orders just yet. After all, Japanese equities are still performing poorly and there might be a chance that the yen could continue its rally.

On top of that, there’s a huge event risk in the form of the FOMC monetary policy statement later today. I think this event could have a material impact on risk sentiment so I’ll also sit on my hands for now and wait for some direction on CAD/JPY before entering.

Which way do you think this pair will break out? I’d love to know your thoughts on this pair!

Happy time

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